Category: US/Midday Session Brief

US Session Forex Brief, Jan 16 – Markets Remain as Confused as Before, the Day After Brexit Deal Failed

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

As we now know, the British Parliament voted against Theresa May’s Brexit deal last evening. That was anticipated though since support for May never seemed enough to make it through. The GBP lost around 250 pips yesterday until the vote, but then surged 200 pips higher when the deal failed. That would look strange a few weeks ago, but the idea behind that move is that Britain might head towards new general elections soon. If that happens, the opposition Labour Party has a decent chance of winning and if they do, they will likely ask for another Brexit referendum. That’s why the GBP got a little excited yesterday and surged higher after the no vote.    Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Jan 16 – Markets Remain as Confused as Before, the Day After Brexit Deal Failed” →

US Session Forex Brief, Jan 14 – Sentiment Turns Sour Again as Stocks Decline While Safe Havens Gain

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

The beginning of this week was expected to be volatile as my colleague Shain explained in one of the last forex updates for last week. His prediction proved to be true as we have already seen volatility in financial markets during the Asian and the European sessions. The market sentiment turned negative during the Asian session and I woke up to find safe havens considerably higher in early European session. USD/JPY had resumed the bearish trend after retracing higher in the last two days of last week, while Gold had surged nearly $10 higher. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Jan 14 – Sentiment Turns Sour Again as Stocks Decline While Safe Havens Gain” →

US Session Forex Brief, Jan 11 – Brexit Might Be Delayed, GBP Gets Excited

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

The main forex events during the European session today came from the UK. There was a round of important economic data, but we knew that wasn’t going to have much impact on the GBP because the whole country is focused on Brexit now that the deadline approaches. The UK GDP ticked higher to 0.2% in November but that’s still pretty weak. Construction output also increased, but the manufacturing production declined again in November, which is the fourth decline in five months.

The industrial production also declined that month, while the trade deficit grew further to -12 billion GBP. Although, the GBP ignored the data since Brexit talk took all the attention once again. Theresa May is desperate to pass the Brexit deal in the British Parliament next week. She is hoping for some more concessions from the EU, such as legal assurance on the Irish backstop. Apparently, the EU has sent a letter to May, possibly giving reassurances for the Irish backstop. Then, we heard rumours that Brexit might be delayed beyond March 29, which sent the GBP 150 pips higher.

Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Jan 11 – Brexit Might Be Delayed, GBP Gets Excited” →

US Session Forex Brief, Jan 10 – Brexit, the FED and the ECB Minutes

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday, we had a number of FED officials comment on interest rates and on the future path of the monetary policy. Some called for interest rates to go up to 3.0%-3.25% and some called for a pause, but only comments made by Bostic had an impact on the USD, sending it more than 100 pips lower against most major currencies. He said that there is no urgency to make policy changes ‘just to run to a number’ and the policy could move in either direction, among other comments.

These words were enough to send the buck diving lower. The FOMC minutes later in the evening gave the buck another push lower albeit small. That’s where we left the USD last night. Later today we will have more FED members holding speeches, so get ready for some more action.

Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Jan 10 – Brexit, the FED and the ECB Minutes” →

US Session Forex Brief, Jan 9 – Sentiment Turns Mildly Positive on US-China Trade Talks

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Just like yesterday, the financial markets have been quiet again today, probably waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes which will be released this evening. What’s different today is that the sentiment has turned mildly positive which can be observed in the commodity Dollars which have been crawling higher during the Asian and the European session. The climb in the CAD is another matter since it is following crude Oil prices higher. US [[WTI]] crude continues its bullish reversal and it has finally broken above the $50 level today.

Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Jan 9 – Sentiment Turns Mildly Positive on US-China Trade Talks” →

US Session Forex Brief, Jan 8 – A Really Quiet Day in Forex

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday it was very quiet in the forex market but today it has been even more quiet. The US Dollar is slightly in demand but that’s about all because most forex majors have barely moved. After the volatility during the holiday season in the previous two weeks, I thought that markets would continue to trade like that now that all forex traders are back from holidays. But, it’s really quiet in forex.

It seems like traders are waiting for something to ignite the markets. It might come tomorrow since we have  number of central bank events tomorrow. It starts with Donald Trump holding a speech early in the morning tomorrow, followed up by the Bank of Canada meeting and rate decision. They are expected to increase interest rated tomorrow, so be careful trading the CAD until then. Then in the evening we have the FOMC minutes form the last meeting. So perhaps, these events will get us moving tomorrow. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Jan 8 – A Really Quiet Day in Forex” →

US Session Forex Brief, Jan 7 – Theresa May prepares for No-Deal Brexit

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Markets today have been really quiet with EUR/USD the biggest mover, climbing around 50 pips, which is a shadow of a move compared to what we have seen recently. But the liquidity is back to normal now, so finally the spikes we witnessed in the last two weeks are finally over. We had a round of economic date from the Eurozone this morning and although it might seem as positive in first sight, it was mostly negative, once again.

Factory orders declined by 1.0% in Germany Black Friday must have had some impact on sales. Retail sales also came out higher in Europe, but that number should be affected by the German retail sales though. The investor confidence declined in Europe, coming negative for the second month, so things are deteriorating in the Eurozone. Although, the Euro is totally ignoring that fact. The surveying firm Sentix said that all the data shows that Europe is close to stagnation and the ECCB as well as politicians are ignoring it.

Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Jan 7 – Theresa May prepares for No-Deal Brexit” →

US Session Forex Brief, Jan 4 – The ECB Should Take Notice as Inflation and Services Soften Further in the Eurozone

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

The European Central Bank (ECB) has started to shift its rhetoric to dovish as we have recently heard, although in my opinion they should sound even more dovish now that the economy of the Eurozone has softened considerably. On Wednesday, the  manufacturing reports from the Eurozone countries showed that the manufacturing sector is still softening in Europe, with Italy and France in contraction.

Today, the final services reports from Germany and France missed expectations, showing that this sector is still cooling off in Europe, with France’s service sector remaining below the 50 level which means contraction. We heard ECB’s Coeure sound dovish this morning, saying that interest rates will stay low for as long as it takes, but after the soft services and inflation numbers released later, I think he should have sounded more dovish. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Jan 4 – The ECB Should Take Notice as Inflation and Services Soften Further in the Eurozone” →

US Session Forex Brief, Jan 3 – Markets Calm Down After the Storm

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Last night, the financial markets went through a small crash. It was surprising to wake up and see that [[GBP/USD]] had dived 150 pips lower, [[AUD/USD]] had lost more than 250 pips while the champion, [[USD/JPY]] had crashed nearly 5 cents lower. European stock markets opened with a bearish gap lower, so something had happened during the night.

I went through the coverage of my Aussie colleague Rowan who covers the Asian session and saw that Apple had downgraded its revenue guidance for Q1. Apple pointed the finger at China and its economy for this downgrade in expectations. Not that they are wrong, because the growth of the Chinese economy has slowed considerably this year, but that rumor alone wouldn’t have sent the markets crashing. Thin liquidity on holiday markets is to blame for that move, as well as some large stops being triggered on the way down.

Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Jan 3 – Markets Calm Down After the Storm” →

US Session Forex Brief, Jan 2 – Manufacturing Remains Weak in the Eurozone

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Today is the first trading day of 2019 and we’ve already seen quite some volatility in the financial markets. Stock markets ended the old year on the right footing during the last few days as they closed near last week’s high. They opened with a small bullish gap and pushed higher in the first hour of trading, but they reversed lower, making it seem like they will resume the bearish trend again.

The USD was feeling pretty weak in the last few days of trading in 2018 as forex traders adjusted and closed some of the long term positions from last year. The USD has been in strong demand the entire year so it made sense to see it close the year on a bearish footing. The Buck got sold again today during the Asian session, but it started reversing early in the European session and it has gained more than 100 pips against most major currencies today, so the Buck seems to back on its feet now. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Jan 2 – Manufacturing Remains Weak in the Eurozone” →