US Session Forex Brief, Apr 17 – Risk Off After Eurozone Manufacturing Data; Safe Havens Rally

Posted on April 18, 2019April 18, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Last month, the sentiment in financial markets turned negative after the Eurozone manufacturing sector showed a deep contraction. Many major central banks turned dovish from neutral or hawkish previously as the global economic slowdown intensified, which hurt the sentiment. But the sentiment has improved this month, especially after the Chinese manufacturing sector made a turnaround and came back into expansion. The improved sentiment has helped risk assets during April with commodity Dollars and stock markets on the climb, while safe havens have crashed lower.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 17 – Inflation Reports From Europe Didn’t Move Forex, While Indices Stretch the Uptrend Further

Posted on April 17, 2019April 17, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Stock markets turned bullish last week after a dip at the beginning of the week on Donald Trump’s tweet about tariffs on $11 billion worth of European goods. The threat still stands and the EU has threatened retaliation which would open another war front in this global trade war. Yesterday we heard the EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom say that the EU will publish a list of US goods targeted for retaliation if Trump goes ahead with tariffs. But for now, the sentiment is still positive and stock markets are benefiting from it, crawling higher and threatening record highs.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 16 – Forex Pairs Bounce in Tight Ranges, While Stocks Remain Slightly Bullish

Posted on April 16, 2019April 16, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday, most of the markets were sort of uncertain which direction to take, after risk assets were bullish last week, as sentiment improved in financial markets. Today we are seeing a mix of both – last week’s price action as well as yesterday’s price action. Forex remains pretty much the same as yesterday without clear direction as uncertainty prevails.

Risk currencies have retraced higher in the last two weeks since they were oversold two weeks ago, but now traders are realizing that there’s really no reason to keep buying them. We saw some green shots from the Eurozone and Chinese economic data last week, but that’s just a spark in a dark sky. Several European Central Bank (ECB) members doubted the assumed economic rebound in Q2 of this year and they might be right as most economic indicators still point down in the Eurozone.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 15 – Risk-On Sentiment has Faded, While EU Tries to Play its Cards with Trump

Posted on April 15, 2019April 15, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The sentiment turned quite positive in financial markets in the last two weeks after taking a dive at the end of March due to deteriorating manufacturing data from the Eurozone, as well as the fact that almost all major central banks shifted from hawkish to dovish or neutral. But, in the last two weeks we saw some green shots in the economic data; the services sector in the Eurozone turned to expansion again and so did the manufacturing sector in China, which eased worries of a global recession. As a result, risk assets such as stock markets and risk currencies have been climbing higher, while safe havens such as the JPY and the CHF have been declining, and hence the bullish reversal in [[EUR/CHF]] and in [[USD/JPY]].

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 12 – Sentiment Turns Positive Before the Weekend Close in Financial Markets

Posted on April 12, 2019April 12, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Financial markets have been quite uncertain this week, with the sentiment shifting from positive to negative from one session to another and vice versa. Most financial assets have been trading in tight ranges, with commodity currencies bouncing up and down while stock markets were trying to make up their mind until this morning whether to turn bearish on large time-frames or to remain bullish.

Today, stock markets have made their mind up and they are running higher as the sentiment has improved considerably. Risk currencies have been climbing higher pretty fast during the Asian and the European session, while safe havens are sliding lower. Although, we had a sign yesterday that the sentiment was about to turn positive as [[Gold]] had a really bearish day, while [[USD/JPY]] ended the day around 80 pips higher. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Apr 12 – Sentiment Turns Positive Before the Weekend Close in Financial Markets” →

US Session Forex Brief, Apr 11 – Markets Seem Uncertain Again After the ECB Meeting and FOMC Minutes

Posted on April 11, 2019April 11, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Financial markets have been pretty uncertain this week. During the first half, they were waiting for Wednesday, which had reserved quite a few important fundamental events. But today after those events are over, markets seem even more uncertain/confused now. The European Central Bank confirmed the dovish bias yesterday, but I suppose traders were expecting an even more dovish ECB.

After all, most economic indicators have turned negative and today, ECB economists revised growth and inflation forecasts even lower for 2019 and the next two year. The Euro lost around 50 pips yesterday but reversed back up and now it is more or less unchanged. US headline CPI inflation jumped higher in March as yesterday’s report showed, but core inflation, which is more important, remained subdued at 0.1%.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 10 – Mixed Fundamentals, Mixed Markets

Posted on April 10, 2019April 10, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The sentiment in financial markets started to improve during the Asian session today, having turned slightly negative yesterday after Trump’s tweet about tariffs on $11 billion of European goods, since the EU has been subsidizing Airbus. We know what this is about, helping Boeing right? But sentiment started to improve during the night and stock markets reversed higher after the pullback yesterday and are still climbing now.

The increase in French and Italian industrial production this morning when expectations were for a 0.5% decline in both countries also helped improve the market sentiment. UK manufacturing and industrial production report released this morning also showed a nice jump in these sectors for February, which tells us that the slowdown in the industrial sector might be over in Europe.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 9 – Safe Havens Get Another Boost on Trump’s Tariffs Threat on the EU

Posted on April 9, 2019April 9, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Today has been yet another quiet day in forex. The calendar has been petty light in the last two days and markets are trying to find a direction, but I suppose traders are waiting on the sidelines for the important fundamental events tomorrow. Tomorrow we have the the Italian and French industrial production reports, the GDP report from the UK, the meeting from the European Central Bank and the FOMC minutes as well as the inflation report from the US, so I expect markets to be treading water until then.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 8 – USD Inches Lower in Quiet Markets

Posted on April 8, 2019April 8, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Financial markets have been quite volatile in recent weeks as the sentiment shifted from positive to negative and vice-versa. Although, last week the volatility declined in forex as the sentiment improved once again, but on the other hand, there’s not many currencies to buy for traders as all major central banks have shifted to dovish now. The FED is not really dovish but they shifted from quite hawkish in the last few years to neutral for the time being.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 5 – Nerves Calm as US NFP Turns Higher Again After the Dip Last Month

Posted on April 5, 2019April 5, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The market sentiment has been quite positive this week and stock markets have enjoyed some jolly times, surging higher. Although, US President Donald Trump threatened Mexico yesterday with auto tariffs if Mexico didn’t help in curbing immigration and drug smuggling into the US. That turned the sentiment neutral and stock markets and forex have been trading in a tight range in the last few sessions.

Another reason for the slow price action in the last two days has been the employment report which was expected to be released today from the US. The report released last month showed a dip in non-farm payrolls (NFP) to just 20k after having increased by more than 300k in the previous two months, which raised some concerns among economists and hurt the USD. So, markets were concerned for the NFP results today, hence the slow price action in financial markets in the last few sessions.

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