US Session Forex Brief, May 9 – USD Holds Steady Ahead of US/China Meeting

Posted on May 9, 2019May 9, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The sentiment turned negative over the weekend in financial markets after US President Trump tweeted that he was going to increase tariffs on China from 10% to 25%. That came as a surprise, given that the two giants had agreed on many things and they were coming to a conclusion, even though the deal wasn’t going to be great for all parties involved. Besides that, they were going to hold on another meeting this week, so those threats for increased tariffs seemed strange.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 8 – Who’s Playing Dirty, US or China?

Posted on May 8, 2019May 8, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

This week we had two central banks holding meetings, starting with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday.They were expected to cut interest rates from 1.50% to 1.25% but decided not to change them this time despite a weakening economy and inflation. Today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was expected to hold interest rates at 1.75% but they delivered a surprising cut to 1.50% which sent NZD/USD 70 pips lower during the Asian session. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, May 8 – Who’s Playing Dirty, US or China?” →

US Session Forex Brief, May 3 – Sentiment Remains Negative Despite the Jump in Eurozone Inflation

Posted on May 3, 2019May 3, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The sentiment in financial markets has been slightly positive in recent weeks as some sectors of the global economy return to growth again, although the miss in Chinese manufacturing and services as well as the confirmation of the contraction for manufacturing activity in Europe and in Germany hurt the sentiment. FED’s Powell also gave the sentiment a kick on Wednesday evening after he dismissed the soft inflation figures recently as transitional. As a result, risk currencies have turned bearish in the last few days, with commodity Dollars down, and most of major stock indices also down on the week.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 2 – The Bullish Reversal Continues for the USD After Powell Shakes Markets Yesterday

Posted on May 2, 2019May 2, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday the FED held its meeting in the evening. The USD has been bearish all week, as traders were expecting the FED to sound even more bearish than in the last meeting. The bearish momentum picked up more pace after the US manufacturing PMI which was released in the afternoon showed a dive in manufacturing activity during April. In fact, most market analysts were anticipating a rate cut before the end of this year, as rate cut odds stood at 60%.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 1 – Traders Cautious Ahead of the FED

Posted on May 1, 2019May 1, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar has been on a bullish trend last week, but this week it has reversed to bearish as traders wait for the FED meeting and the general consensus out there is that the FED will be bearish today. Yesterday we saw the US Chicago PMI dive to around 52 points from 59 points in the previous month, which gave the USD another kick down the road as it increases the odds of the FED being dovish today.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 30 – Disappointing Chinese Data, Mixed Eurozone Data, the USD Bears the Burden

Posted on April 30, 2019April 30, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The market sentiment continued to deteriorate at the end of last year and the start of this one as the global economy slowed down considerably. The manufacturing sector fell into contraction for three months and the Eurozone manufacturing activity fell into an even deeper contraction in March. But, the economic data from China showed us last month that the manufacturing activity had made a turnaround and jumped back into expansion. Both Manufacturing PMI and Caixin manufacturing numbers were quite impressive after being below the 50 flat level for several months.

That improved the sentiment in financial markets, hence the bearish reversal in safe havens such as Gold and the climb in risk assets such as stock markets. China coming back to growth means one less thing to worry regarding the global economy.

But, last night the numbers were disappointing. Manufacturing PMI missed expectations and declined from last month, although this sector still remains in a decent shape, while manufacturing not so much. Caixin manufacturing and the manufacturing PMI reports showed that this sector is back to almost flat. Was last month’s jump just a seasonal adjustment? Is the global economy still headed towards recession after this month’s Eurozone manufacturing sector confirmed the deep dive?

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 29 – Another Confirmation That Inflation Has Softened in the US

Posted on April 29, 2019April 29, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Last week we saw the USD trade in a bullish trend which started on Thursday the week before, after the impressive US retail sales report that day. The uptrend continued throughout last week apart from Friday when we saw a retrace lower, which was due.

Today, the market is uncertain which way to go and the price action has been pretty quiet all day. We have a big week ahead of us, so I suppose traders are remaining on the sidelines ahead of the Chinese manufacturing and services data and the Eurozone GDP report tomorrow, as well as the Canadian GDP and US consumer confidence. On Wednesday we have the employment report from New Zealand and the FED meeting. On Thursday, China will release the Caixin manufacturing PMI, the manufacturing reports from Europe, while on Friday the US employment and earnings report will be released.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 26 – US GDP Jumps, the Dollar Falls

Posted on April 26, 2019April 26, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

This week the US Dollar has been enjoying the good times as the bullish reversal which started last Thursday after the confirmation that the European manufacturing sector is in deep contraction and the impressive US retail sales that same day. The USD has been pretty bullish all week, making new highs against most major currencies. Although, in the last few sessions the price action has been really quiet as traders were awaiting the US GDP report which was released a while ago.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 24 – The USD Holds Gains as Earnings Reports Come Out

Posted on April 24, 2019April 24, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The USD turned bullish on Thursday last week after the impressive jump in retail sales. Retail sales have been quite volatile recently, so that jump came as a bit of a surprise and the USD started to move higher. The uptrend stalled during last Friday and this Monday due to thin liquidity and slow price action during the Easter weekend. But, it resumed yesterday after Donald Trump’s tweet which threatened retaliation on the EU’s trade tariffs on Harley Davidson, which in fact, were a reaction themselves to the Steel and Aluminium tariffs that Trump slammed on everyone early last year. So, it seems that Trump just wants to open another trade war front, this time with the EU.

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US Session Forex Brief, Apr 23 – USD Gains as Risk Off Sentiment Prevails

Posted on April 23, 2019April 23, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The sentiment has been positive in recent weeks in financial markets as Chinese data last month showed that the fiscal and monetary stimulus is working. Stock markets have enjoyed some decent bids during this time. But today, the risk sentiment has been switched off again. Markets were really quiet, following the Easter weekend. Markets were open on Friday and yesterday, but the price action was very slow and it continues to be like that today as well, although the shift in the sentiment is finally giving us some action and a few pips here and there.

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