US Session Forex Brief, May 27 – Quiet Markets After European Elections

Posted on May 27, 2019May 27, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The markets have been pretty quiet today. The UK is off due to the Spring Bank Holiday while the US is off for Memorial Day, and this is affecting financial markets today. As a result, the price action has been pretty slow, apart from a jump in Auto stock shares which came after Fiat Chrysler announced a proposal for a merger with Renault. Cryptocurrencies have also been on the move today with [[Bitcoin]] climbing more than $1,000 higher, placing the spotlight on the $10,000 level now, which will be the decisive level for Bitcoin.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 24 – The USD Turns Bearish, While the GBP Jumps on Theresa May’s Resignation

Posted on May 24, 2019May 24, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

As we highlighted in yesterday’s midday brief, the USD has been on an uptrend for a few weeks since there is nothing else to buy as the uncertainty is still quite elevated in financial markets. There are many factors for this uncertainty – the US-China trade war, Brexit, the European elections, a weakening global economy, etc. The US economy is in the best place among major global economies as different sectors are in contraction or in stagnation in the other ones, hence the uptrend in the USD recently.

Speaking of the weakening in the global economy, the US manufacturing and services reports released yesterday in the afternoon were pretty horrible, showing that these sectors are edging closer to stagnation as well. So, no, there’s nothing to buy for forex traders with stock markets being bearish, the major currencies being bearish since their respective central banks have turned bearish, and Oil turning bearish as well. The only place to run for safety are the safe havens, which have turned bullish in the last two days because of this.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 23 – The USD Continues the Bullish Run With Nothing Else to Buy

Posted on May 23, 2019May 23, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The USD has been on a bullish trend for more than a year, although other assets have been bullish as well during this time. But in the last few weeks, the USD has been the only thing left to buy since even safe havens have turned bearish from last Monday. Today, the sentiment has turned negative once again and stock markets have turned bearish while Crude Oil has lost more than $4 in the last two days. US WTI crude has just broken the $60 level which is a big support area and if the price holds below it, this would be the sign for a bearish reversal after trending higher for months since the beginning of this year.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 21 – GBP Finally Finds Some Bids as May Promises New Brexit Proposal

Posted on May 21, 2019May 21, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Today is another boring day regarding the economic data. The most important event today was the speech from the Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Lowe who sounded pretty dovish. The economy and employment are not in a good shape and the outlook would be worse if not taking into account a planned rate cut. He added that the RBA will take into consideration a rate cut in the June meeting, so it seems to me that this is a deal done after the failure to deliver a rate cut in the last meeting, before the RBNZ cut interest rates, by 25 basis points.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 20 – Stock Markets Turn Bearish Again as Sentiment Turns Negative

Posted on May 20, 2019May 20, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

In the last two weeks, the sentiment has turned pretty bearish in financial markets after the trade war between US and China, which was coming to an end as both sides were heading towards a trade agreement, escalated once again. As we know, China pulled back from promises to tackle IP theft and forced technology transfers which forced Donald Trump to elevate tariffs on Chinese goods and China responded back with retaliation. But towards the end of last week, the sentiment improved in financial markets and stock markets reversed higher together with [[USD/JPY]], while [[Gold]] reversed lower.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 17 – Core Inflation Ticks Higher in Europe, While Brexit Talks Fail

Posted on May 17, 2019May 17, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday the sentiment improved in financial markets, especially during the US session. We witnessed that by the 60 pip climb in [[USD/JPY]] or better yet, by the surge in stocks during the afternoon. There wasn’t much of a reason behind that reversal in the market sentiment because the trade war is ongoing and it is in fact escalating further. But I suppose markets needed to refresh after being bearish all week.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 16 – Sentiment Turns Bullish in Stock Markets Despite the Escalating Trade Conflict

Posted on May 16, 2019May 16, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The sentiment turned pretty bearish in financial markets last week after the trade war which was heading towards a solution came back to haunt us again as traders. China decided to backtrack on promises it made to Trump which was followed by increased tariffs by both sides. Commodity Dollars have taken it on the chin as they get hit both by the deteriorating sentiment, since they are risk assets, as well as by exports to China which are expected to decline in the coming months if the trade war escalates.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 14 – Tensions Increase but Markets Remain on Hold Today

Posted on May 14, 2019May 14, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

In the previous weekend, Donald Trump tweeted about higher tariffs on China after the Chinese had backtracked on promises to the US and he didn’t wait long to slam new tariffs on China, which took effect towards the end of last week. As a result, the market sentiment was negative last week although it improved a bit yesterday during the European session. But, China announced retaliation yesterday and it placed tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods. That hurt the sentiment further as markets now realized that the comments from both sides weren’t just words, instead, the trade war that we thought was coming to an end is escalating once again. Besides that, we heard US officials comment on tariffs for European cars yesterday and the decision will be made at the end of this week.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 13 – Trade Wars! Expect it to Get Worse Before Getting Better

Posted on May 13, 2019May 13, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The sentiment in financial markets have improved this year after the deterioration at the end of 2018. As a result, stock markets have been pretty bullish and safe havens have been bearish, hence the downtrend in Gold since February and the uptrend in [[USD/JPY]] since the beginning of this year. But last week, the market sentiment turned pretty negative after Trump’s tweet over the previous weekend that the US would increase tariffs on China from 10% to 25%. Markets turned upside down, with safe havens gaining and risk assets declining. But towards the end of the week the sentiment improved a bit as China and the US turned down the tones and held the planned meeting, but the uncertainty remained.

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US Session Forex Brief, May 9 – A Ton of Important Data Today Have Left the Picture Still Pretty Mixed

Posted on May 10, 2019May 10, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Markets are pretty much in wait-and-see mode today as well as the the US and China hold the meeting on trade, but the outcome of this meeting is as uncertain as it can get after the comments from both sides which point to further escalation. China said this morning that the US should meet them halfway, but if China is stealing technology, then there’s nothing for the US to do to meet China halfway, apart from forcing it with tariffs.

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