US Session Forex Brief, March 5 – Markets Remain Confused Today Despite Positive Services Figures in Europe

Posted on March 5, 2019March 5, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The economic data in the last several months from the Eurozone as well as the UK has been deteriorating which tells us that these economies have been softening considerably. We know the story of Britain with Brexit hurting the investor sentiment and we saw the first decline in investment in Q4 of last year since a long time ago. But that’s not all, as the Eurozone and the global economies are also weakening.

Although, today we saw a round of positive economic data from Europe. Italian and French services PMI made a turnaround, coming above 50 points, which means that they expanded in February after contracting for two months. This is an encouraging sign given the bearish trend of these indicators since Q3 last year. The British services PMI was expected to decline further which would mean that this sector would fall into stagnation in February, but it also came above expectations, relaxing some nerves among GBP traders.

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US Session Forex Brief, March 4 – The USD Continues the Uptrend Despite Trump’s Complaints

Posted on March 4, 2019March 4, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The USD was under pressure during the second half of February but towards the end of last week, the situation changed and the Buck reversed higher. EUR/USD turned bearish after failing to hang on above the 1.14 level. It fell into the 1.13 region where it has been trading for most of the time since late October. US President Donald Trump doesn’t like a strong Dollar since it would hurt exports and he repeated it over the weekend; that’s why markets opened with a bearish gap for the USD last night. But it seems that there is nothing else to turn to right now, so the market has been leaning on the USD which is getting stronger today, love it or hate it.

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 28 – Demand Returns for Safe Havens on Geopolitical Tensions

Posted on February 28, 2019February 28, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Today we had inflation figures being released from Europe as well as some additional economic reports such as French GDP and consumer spending reports, although the market seems more concerned about geopolitics as the sentiment keeps directing prices up and down. Consumer spending made a turnaround in France, growing by 1.2% in January after having declined for two months at the end of last year. It seems that yellow vest protests haven’t hurt the French consumer last month, but the impact might show up in the retail sales report next month.

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 27 – Sentiment Turns Negative on Geopolitical Tensions

Posted on February 27, 2019February 27, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The market sentiment has been quite positive in the last two months since after Christmas, when we saw a 5 cent decline in [[USD/JPY]] as markets had a flash crash back then. Since then, the sentiment has improved considerably in financial markets, sending this pair back up to where it was. Risk assets have benefited during this time with Crude Oil making a decent bullish reversal from the lows back in December, as well as sending stock markets higher. The main reason for this reversal in the sentiment has been the dialogue between US and China which seems to be going well, although many more issues remain to be resolved between them.

But, the main thing now is that the trade war won’t escalate further and it might as well come to an end soon. Although, in the last two days the sentiment has turned negative again, this time from geopolitical tensions. India and Pakistan are having another go at each-other and today I heard that two Indian military planes were shot down in/by Pakistan. That’s all it takes to send the markets down. China has urged them to stop it, so let’s see if they listen to China. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Feb 27 – Sentiment Turns Negative on Geopolitical Tensions” →

US Session Forex Brief, Feb 26 – GBP has been the Only Game in Town Today as Brexit Seems to be Postponed

Posted on February 26, 2019February 26, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The market sentiment got hurt during the Asian session on geopolitical tensions between the two arch-rivals, India and Pakistan. I’m not sure what exactly has been going on there, but it was enough to hurt the sentiment which has been pretty upbeat recently and, as a result, stock markets retraced lower. We saw this as a good opportunity to go long on [[S&P500]] since the trend has been bullish in the last two months and the overall sentiment remains positive given the positive tones from China and the US regarding trade negotiations.

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 25 – Risk Assets Climb as Sentiment Improves on China-US Comments

Posted on February 25, 2019February 25, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The risk sentiment seems to have improved today despite low volatility in financial markets. Stock markets are all higher today and are still grinding higher, risk currencies are also higher apart from the CAD which has just made a bearish reversal, but that’s another story. Safe havens are sliding lower slowly although the decline is very slow, which tells us that traders are still careful not to run away too far too fast because as things have been going in the last year or so, everything might change in a blink and when things change, they usually change for the worse.

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 22 – Traders Preparing for Next Week as this Week Heads Towards the Close

Posted on February 22, 2019February 22, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The financial markets have been pretty quiet once again today, trading in a tight range. The stock markets are sort of bullish as they crawl higher, but only slightly. The uptrend continues in indices and they have made some new highs for the year today with [[S&P500]] leading the way. This morning we had the Ifo and ECB’s Ewald Nowotny repeat that the German economy is expected to remain weak and growth will likely be revised down after the the decline in the business climate in Germany. But, that didn’t hurt stock markets which keep creeping higher. Donald Trump is loving this as he measures the success of his administration on stock markets.

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 21 – USD Trades Sideways After FOMC Minutes, While Com Dolls Tumble on China Statements

Posted on February 21, 2019February 21, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday in the evening, the FED released the FOMC minutes from their last meeting which basically reinforced what the traders already knew. Slower growth and inflation abroad have muted domestic inflationary pressures, business investment has decreased, while downside risk appears to have increased, even as the labor market remains strong and inflation near target levels. Pretty much what forex traders already knew from recent comments by various FED members; uncertainty has increased but it hasn’t materialized too much in the US economy as it has done in other major global economies.

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 20 – UK Political Scene Continues to Shuffle, While Markets Wait for the FOMC Minutes

Posted on February 20, 2019February 20, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The mess that is the British politics is getting even messier. Earlier this week we saw seven Labour MPs leave the Party to create “The Independent Group” for reasons that only they know. Today, three more MPs left to join this group, although these three seem more reasonable since Theresa May’s government is guilty to a large degree for this mess that Brexit and the UK is right now. But, the Labour MPs leaving the Party doesn’t make much sense. They stated a few weak issues that they had, but we have already forgotten their “issues” because they were nonsense, so the question arises, who has paid them?

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 19 – GBP, Gold and Cryptocurrencies Extend Their Bullish Run

Posted on February 19, 2019February 19, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The major currencies made a bullish reversal against the USD last Friday, but today we see that only the GBP is keeping that momentum going as the rest of majors have turned bearish today. Commodity Dollars turned bearish yesterday and the meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia gave [[AUD/USD]] and the Kiwi another reason to push lower. Now the scenarios between a rate hike and a rate cut are balanced, as opposed to the RBA leaning towards the hawkish side until a couple of weeks ago.

The Euro also turned bearish today after the Vice President of the European Central Bank also sounded sort of dovish. He commented earlier this morning that the ECB won’t take any decision before thorough analysis and the policy will stay accommodative for a long while yet. That means no rate hikes this year and judging by the shape of the Eurozone economy in recent months, we can agree that it doesn’t support a rate hike.

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