US Session Forex Brief, Feb 18 – The Pullback Continues for the USD While Cryptos Finally Make a Move

Posted on February 18, 2019February 18, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The economic data today has been really light and the price action has been slow. With the US in holiday for President’s Day, I expect the price action to get even slower as the European session heads towards close, although there have been some developments in the markets today. Gold is threatening highs at $1,325 right now as the USD continues to retrace lower. Speaking of the USD, it was on a bullish trend for most of last week but we saw a bearish turnaround on Friday which is continuing today as well. Not sure if the emergency plan that was triggered by Donald Trump is having an impact on the Buck though.

Stock markets are little changed today after the bullish run at the end of last week. but the cryptocurrencies are feeling regenerated today. [[Ethereum]] is leading the way for cryptos as they climb higher. Ethereum will release the Constantinople hard fork on March 1 and they are also pushing to get listed on the futures market, which seems to have had some positive impact on the crypto market. [[Bitcoin]] has broken above the 100 SMA on the H4 chart which has been providing resistance for two months.

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 15 – Commodity Dollars Rebound as Sentiment Improves

Posted on February 15, 2019February 15, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The market sentiment seems to have turned positive again today on some positive tones from the US-China trade meeting in Beijing. Apparently, both sides reached a consensus on some important issues. The two teams discussed topics which include non-tariff barriers, services, agriculture, trade balance, technology transfer and IP protection. They are working towards a memorandum of understanding in order to seal a trade deal next month when the two Presidents meet.

That has helped the stock markets which have been climbing higher during the European session after the bearish pullback we saw yesterday. All indices are on a bullish move now and they are threatening to break recent highs. Although, the commodity Dollars have benefited the most since they would be the hardest hit in an ongoing trade war between US and China. [[NZD/USD]] has climbed around 50 pips while the Aussie found itself 30 pips higher from the lows in the Asian session. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Feb 15 – Commodity Dollars Rebound as Sentiment Improves” →

US Session Forex Brief, Feb 14 – Mixed Economic Numbers from Europe Today

Posted on February 14, 2019February 14, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Happy Valentine’s Day to those who have found their twin soul, not that markets care for love, but we do here at FXLeaders. Today, we had a number of GDP reports being released. It kicked off early in the Asian session with the Japanese GDP figures which missed expectations; the Japanese economy was expected to grow at 0.4% in Q4 of 2018 but the actual number came at 0.3%. What’s worse, the revision of Q3 which was lowered to -0.6% from -0.3% previously, so the expansion in Q4 doesn’t make up for the contraction in Q3.

Later when the European session started, the GDP report from Germany was released and it showed that the German economy fell flat in Q4 against a slight growth of 0.1% expected, having come from a 0.2% contraction in Q3. The producer price index PPI declined yet again by 0.7% in January, which is the fourth decline in three months, while the wholesale price index also declined by 0.7% in January after having declined by 1.2% in December.

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 13 – Inflation Cools Off in Britain but the GBP Surges on Brexit Rumours

Posted on February 13, 2019February 13, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The day started with the monthly meeting at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The RBNZ left interest rates unchanged as expected, but when I started the day at the beginning of the European session, the Kiwi was already around 120 pips higher. The market was expecting a dovish RBNZ which would increase or at least balance the odds between hiking and cutting interest rates in the near future. The RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr added in the press conference that the “chance of a rate cut has not increased”, unlike his counterpart in Australia. That initiated some short covering and [[NZD/USD]] surged more than 100 pips higher.

Later as the European session got underway, the inflation report from Britain was released and it showed a cooling off in headline CPI (consumer price index). Although, the core inflation figures remained unchanged which means that the three point decline in YoY CPI came from the decline in the energy prices as the surveying firm ONS confirmed. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Feb 13 – Inflation Cools Off in Britain but the GBP Surges on Brexit Rumours” →

US Session Forex Brief, Feb 12 – Forex Market in Standby Ahead of the Carney and Powell Speeches

Posted on February 12, 2019February 12, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The forex market seems to be in standby today. In the recent couple of weeks, we have seen forex traders lean on the USD as the risk of a no-deal Brexit increased and the number of majors to buy decreased considerably. As a result, the market was leaning on the USD as the only safe place to hide, which continued yesterday as well. [[EUR/USD]] broke below 1.13 yesterday which seems like a good place to sell today as this pair is retracing higher slowly.

GBP/USD lost nearly 100 pips after a horrible round round of economic data which showed that all sectors of the British economy contracted in December and the GDP declined by 0.4%. Although, that’s not a big surprise. Today, most forex majors are trading in tight ranges as we await the speech from the BOE chairman Mark Carney in some time, while FED’s Jerome Powell will hold a speech in the evening at 17:45 GMT.

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 8 – Canadian Employment Report Brings Some Life Into a Dull Session

Posted on February 8, 2019February 8, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Financial markets have been pretty quiet today. Only [[Gold]] has made a half decent move as it climbed around $12 during the European session. The market sentiment has been neither bearish nor bullish, so I suppose forex traders don’t have anything to turn to and they are leaning on Gold for safety before the weekend.

The usual Breit rhetoric has been hurting our ears as usual, with British PM May said to be asking for legally binding changes to Brexit agreement when she meets with Irish PM Theo Varadkar. Same old story, but I don’t think she will get it. Italian industrial production declined again in December for the third time in the last five months, while in France, industrial production turned positive this time.

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US Session Forex Brief, Feb 7 – EU and the BOE Cut Growth Forecasts

Posted on February 7, 2019February 7, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

With Brexit being where it is right now, a total mess I would say, the Bank of England meeting was bound to take all the attention today. Although, the European Commission was the first to kick the ball today as they released the economic forecasts for 2019 and 2020. GDP growth forecasts were revised lower for all the major Eurozone countries and inflation expectations were revised lower as well.

With the economic weakness and the recent data we have seen in Europe, it is not a big surprise to see such negative revisions. Today’s German industrial production number came negative once again which is the fifth negative reading in the last six months, while factory orders posted a massive decline yesterday. And that’s without taking into consideration the US tariffs on European cars which should come pretty soon. [[EUR/USD]] stretched the downtrend further after that report was released. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Feb 7 – EU and the BOE Cut Growth Forecasts” →

US Session Forex Brief, Feb 6 – USD Benefits as Everything Else Heads Lower

Posted on February 6, 2019February 6, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar was under pressure in the last two weeks and it got dumped again on Wednesday evening after the FOMC meeting. But, on Thursday it started getting its act together and a bullish reversal followed, which has been going on since then. Today, forex traders seem reluctant to buy anything else, so they have just been finding comfort in the USD again, which continues to crawl higher.

The commodity Dollars are under heavy pressure after the Reserve Bank of Australia Lowe sounded sort of dovish during the Asian session. The market sees the RBA as neutral now after being hawkish for a long time and Lowe even mentioned rate cuts in his speech which sent AUD/USD more than 100 pips lower. That dragged the Kiwi lower as well. The CAD is considerably lower while Oil prices retreat lower. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Feb 6 – USD Benefits as Everything Else Heads Lower” →

US Session Forex Brief, Feb 4 – Eurozone Economy Continues to Weaken Further

Posted on February 4, 2019February 4, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Here we are, trading forex on another Monday. The price action has been slow today but what’s observable is the fact that the USD is in demand today, albeit slightly. The Buck was feeling pretty bearish last week, but towards the end of the week the USD started getting its act together and it crawled higher in the last couple of days. That same price action has spilled into this week and the USD has advanced across the board during the Asian and the European session.

But as mentioned, the price action has been slow and the biggest mover in forex today is [[USD/JPY]] which has climbed around 50 pips. Gold has continued to pull back today after the pullback last Friday, although the trend remains quite bearish, while stock markets are little changed today. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, Feb 4 – Eurozone Economy Continues to Weaken Further” →

US Session Forex Brief, Feb 1 – Trading Manufacturing, Inflation and Employment Today

Posted on February 1, 2019February 1, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Today is the first day of the month when major economies publish their manufacturing reports for the previous month. During the Asian session, we had the Japanese and the Chinese manufacturing figures being released, while in the European session the inflation report from Europe came out, as well as inflation figures. Later on, we will get to see how the manufacturing sector has been performing in the US, but before that, the US employment and earnings figures will be released.

Final manufacturing PMI from Japan stood at 50.0 points last month in Japan which means that this sector fell flat. Although, this indicator increased slightly to 50.3 points, so hopefully this sector will pick up in Japan.

Chinese manufacturing PMI came at 49.7 points last month, showing that this sector is contracting. Today, this indicator was expected to cool off further to 49.5 points, but it came at 48.3 points. So, the Chinese manufacturing sector is feeling the pressure of US trade tariffs. [[AUD/USD]] lost around 40 pips during early Asian session but has recuperated in the European session. Although, if manufacturing continues to weaken in China, it will eventually send the Aussie tumbling.

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