US Session Forex Brief, March 20 – GBP Dives on Brexit Extension While the Rest of the Market Awaits the FED

Posted on March 20, 2019March 20, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The main movers today until abut two hours ago were the Commodity Dollars and the JPY. The Iron Ore prices lost considerable ground today and they’re still falling, which has hurt the Aussie, as Australia is a large exporter of raw materials and this adds up with the closing of the China Dalian port for Australian coal. That also pulled the Kiwi lower, but they have recuperated last night’s losses while Iron Ore is still declining.

Although, in the last couple of hours the GBP has taken the flag as the biggest mover so far today. [[GBP/USD]] has been bearish all morning today, losing around 50 pips, but then the comments regarding another Brexit extension came and this pair lost another 100 pips. The EU gave the UK two options for another Brexit extension, one until May 23 which would be a short extension, and the other until the end of the year, which would require the UK to hold European elections in Britain one last time. But, Theresa May asked for an extension until June 30, so things look a bit complicated now, hence the decline in the GBP pairs.

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US Session Forex Brief, March 19 – Great UK Earnings and Employment Report Couldn’t Move the GBP with Brexit Uncertainty Bound to Continue

Posted on March 19, 2019March 19, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The period of weakness continues today again for the US Dollar. Everything has been gaining on the expense of the Buck. Safe havens such as the JPY and [[Gold]] are on the uptrend and at the same time the risk assets such as the stock markets and the commodity Dollars are also climbing higher. Speaking of commodity Dollars, China said early this morning that it will strengthen inspections and testing of Coal imports, yet the Aussie didn’t dive lower like it did last week when China closed the Dalian port for coal imports. Australia exports lots of coal and and other raw materials to China, so this hurts relationships further between the two countries, but we should keep this in mind for the larger picture for the Australian Dollar. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, March 19 – Great UK Earnings and Employment Report Couldn’t Move the GBP with Brexit Uncertainty Bound to Continue” →

US Session Forex Brief, March 18 – Risk Currencies Benefit From Weaker USD

Posted on March 18, 2019March 18, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar continues to remain soft today. The Buck had a bad week last week as it turned bearish on Friday the previous week after the soft non-farm employment change. Earnings and the unemployment rate posted some decent figures on the same day, but the market turned bearish on the employment figures which kept the Buck subdued for the entire week. Today, the situation seems pretty similar as the USD continues to slide lower across the board.

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US Session Forex Brief, March 14 – USD Bulls Finally Make a Comeback

Posted on March 14, 2019March 14, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar turned bearish last Friday after the US non-farm employment change figures came really soft. The unemployment rate lost two points and, most importantly, earnings increased by 0.4% in February, beating expectations. This is the second month earnings grew by 0.4% after they increased by 0.4% in December. Earnings have been the laggard during the economic expansion in the US since the 2008-9 crisis, but they seem to be moving in the right direction at the right pace now. Nonetheless, markets concentrated on the non-farm employment change and the USD has been on a downtrend the entire week.

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US Session Forex Brief, March 13 – Confusion Prevails in Markets After the Brexit Vote Yesterday

Posted on March 13, 2019March 13, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The Brexit meaningful vote on Theresa May’s deal took place last evening which we covered live on our forex calendar section, if you want to have a look. The GBP dived nearly 300 pips during the European session as everyone reached the conclusion that the deal wouldn’t pass the Parliament vote. So when the time came for British Parliament to vote, the markets remained relatively calm. As expected, the vote went against May’s deal. Theresa May didn’t resign after that, so the most likely scenario now is another extension of Article 50.

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US Session Forex Brief, March 12 – A Positive Round of Data from Britain Ahead of the Brexit Vote

Posted on March 12, 2019March 12, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Today is the big day we all have been waiting for. The “meaningful” Brexit vote will be held later in the evening in the British Parliament after discussions have exhausted all scenarios for the future. Yesterday we heard that this might be a “provisional” vote which Theresa May could take to the EU once again and try to get some more concessions. But, May rejected that idea yesterday and went for the meaningful vote, which will be the last one, as EU officials suggested today. European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that Britain gets a second chance today and there won’t be a third, so this is it.

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US Session Forex Brief, March 11 – Retail Sales Turn Positive Again in January in the US After a Horrible Month in December

Posted on March 11, 2019March 11, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Last week we left stock markets on the decline after they had a bad week as the sentiment in financial markets turned negative. Three major central banks (ECB, BOC and RBA) turned dovish last week from neutral/hawkish and the European Central Bank lowered the Eurozone and global growth and inflation expectations for 2019 and 2020, as did the OECD. That was more than enough to turn stock markets dovish but they made a comeback at the end of the week when they climbed higher during the US session. Today they have been undecided, apart from Boeing shares which continue to tumble after the crash in Ethiopia has forced other countries like China and Indonesia to halt flights of Boeing 737 jet crafts.

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US Session Forex Brief, March 8 – Markets Wait for the US Employment Report After the ECB Carnage Yesterday

Posted on March 8, 2019March 8, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday the European Central Bank accepted defeat after promising to hike interest rates this year and they have been banging that drum for more than a year, despite a weakening Eurozone economy in 2018. But, things went from bad to worse as the economic data has shown in recent months and now the ECB finally accepted that they won’t hike rates this year. In fact, they will buy more TLTRO for a two-year period which means a more accomodative monetary policy.

On top of that, they revised the economic and inflation projections lower for this year and next year as well, which turned the sentiment negative in the financial markets. That sent stock markets diving lower yesterday as well as the Euro obviously, which finally broke the long term support above 1.12. Safe havens received some strong bids with Gold climbing around $10 during the Asian session today and USD/JPY declined 80 pips. I even heard today that Commerzbank analysts don’t expect a rate hike next year either and they say that the ECB will revise growth lower again.

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US Session Forex Brief, March 7 – Risk Off Again as Markets Wait for the ECB

Posted on March 7, 2019March 7, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

The market sentiment has been quite positive this year after the doomsday predictions at the end of 2018 and, as a result, stock markets have been on a 2 month bullish trend. This week though the sentiment has shifted from positive to negative and vice-versa few times as uncertainty increases. Yesterday the sentiment improved for a moment and indices jumped higher, but it shifted again and stock markets declined. Today the decline has continued in indices which means that the sentiment is still negative.

You can observe the shift in the sentiment in [[USD/JPY]]. The JPY is a safe haven asset and as such it attracts bids when the sentiment in financial markets turns sour. The risk sentiment has been on and off this week and USD/JPY has traded in a range after the big bullish move last week. The same story you can see in Gold this week as it has also formed a tight range. Continue reading “US Session Forex Brief, March 7 – Risk Off Again as Markets Wait for the ECB” →

US Session Forex Brief, March 6 – Calm Markets Ahead of Important Data Later this Week

Posted on March 6, 2019March 6, 2019 by Skerdian Meta

Today has been yet another quiet day in financial markets, even more so than yesterday. In fact, yesterday we saw some nice price action after the US non-manufacturing PMI came much higher than expected, especially new orders which jumped to the highest level since 2005. That implies that activity in non-manufacturing sectors will increase in the coming weeks, hence the 40 pips increase in the USD.

Today the economic data has been very light in the European session and the sentiment seems uncertain. Risk assets such as stock markets haven’t made their mind yet, whether to turn bullish or bearish while risk currencies are not making any decisive move yet, to set the direction for the day. There was a move in the Australian Dollar early in the Asian session after the economic growth in Q4 fell to just 0.2% against 0.5% expected as the GDP report showed. That increases the odds that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) cuts interest rates, hence the 70 pip decline in AUD/USD today.

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