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Just in: The Mexican central bank lowers its growth forecast for 2024 to 2.8%.

The central bank of Mexico has lowered its GDP forecast for 2024 and maintained the one of 2025, the first year of the new government.

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The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has downwardly adjusted its growth forecast for 2024, the last year of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, and maintained its GDP expansion estimate for 2025, the first year of the new government.

In its Quarterly Report for October-December, the central bank indicated that its point estimate for the 2024 GDP forecast was revised from 3% to 2.8%. Therefore, the range for the expected GDP growth for the year is adjusted to between 2.2% and 3.4%.

Banxico stated that the adjustment in the economic growth forecast does not imply a “significant” modification but responds to lower growth in the final quarter of 2023 compared to expectations. This induces an arithmetic effect of a lower growth base for 2024.

For 2025, Banxico noted that the expected fiscal consolidation effort is anticipated to result in reduced domestic spending. Instead, it is expected that external demand will play a more significant role due to the better anticipated performance of the U.S. economy in that year relative to the previous one.

Consequently, the central estimate for GDP expansion in 2025 is 1.5%, the same rate as in the previous report. The range for the expected GDP growth in that year is between 0.7% and 2.3%.

Throughout the forecast horizon, it is expected that the ongoing process of relocating some companies to Mexico, the so called nearshoring, will provide a certain boost to economic activity, acknowledging the high uncertainty regarding its magnitude and effects.

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Gabriel Micillo
Gabriel is a certified public accountant graduated from UNNE (National University of the Northeast, Argentina) and a software developer, currently pursuing a Master's degree in Finance and Economics. With nearly 8 years of experience working for accounting firms and brokerage firms. Concurrently, he has produced economic and financial reports on the current state of regional economies for the clients of the establishments where he has worked. Additionally, he assisted colleagues like Ignacio Teson in the drafting and editing of articles on similar topics in English language.
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