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WTI Set to Close for a Second Successive Monthly Rise

OPEC to extend production cuts

WTI looks set to close the month higher for the second time in two consecutive months. A report from Reuters states from 3 sources that OPEC is set to extend production cuts.

In an attempt to protect the price of crude oil, it certainly seems likely that the Reuters report matches the needs of OPEC. Yesterday’s report from Reuters also mentioned that OPEC could keep these cuts in place until the end of 2024.

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The sources also mentioned that the OPEC members would have to discuss the exact terms, but that an announcement could be made in the first weeks of March.

In the meantime, geopolitical risks like the ongoing conflict in Israel, the increasing Iran/US tensions, and the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea also add to more upside potential given the implications for crude oil.

Today we saw data for Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) come in as expected at 2.8%. This is the inflation data the Fed considers when deliberating on its interest rate policy. The stock market liked it, as always.

Despite the fact unemployment data was higher than expected the stock market liked the subdued data for inflation, and so did WTI futures. The price for the front contract took a jump of 35 in the first 15 minutes after the data release.

The crude oil market in general favors a lower than higher interest rate environment. So, today’s inflation data could be the extra nudge the market needs to send WTI futures higher. Over the past 12 trading sessions, WTI price has been capped under $78.70.

Whereas yesterday proved the exception when the market hit a high of just over $79.20. Today’s close looks set to show 2 consecutive monthly gains. Which would come after 3 consecutive monthly losses.

WTI
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Gino Bruno D'Alessio
Gino D’Alessio is a professional Forex trader with 20+ years of experience in the financial markets as a broker-dealer. Having worked in New York and London, Gino is regularly featured on Seeking Alpha. He completed the CAIA program in 2015, which also gave great insight into global macro factors. His main focus is FX majors, indices and commodities.
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