Puell Multiple Indicates Bitcoin is Currently Undervalued

On-chain data reveals that the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has dipped into the “undervalued” category, marking the first time this has occurred in over a year.

This decline could signal a significant shift in the market, potentially indicating a favourable buying opportunity for investors.

Understanding the Puell Multiple

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The Puell Multiple is an on-chain metric that evaluates the ratio of Bitcoin miners’ daily earnings to the 365-day moving average (MA) of these earnings.

Miners generate revenue through two primary sources: block rewards and transaction fees. Block rewards are earned by adding new blocks to the blockchain, while transaction fees are collected for processing transactions within those blocks.

The Calculation of Puell Multiple

In the context of the Puell Multiple, the block reward is typically considered a fixed value in terms of Bitcoin (BTC). However, its value in USD fluctuates based on the current Bitcoin price.

Therefore, the Puell Multiple measures miners’ revenue in USD, linking it directly to Bitcoin’s market price. When the Puell Multiple exceeds one, it suggests that miners are earning more than the yearly average, indicating that Bitcoin might be overvalued.

Conversely, a value below one implies that miners are earning less than usual, signaling potential undervaluation.

Recent Trends in the Puell Multiple

Recently, the Puell Multiple has experienced a sharp decline. The 7-day moving average of this metric has fallen below one, a significant development not seen in over a year.

This drop occurred even as Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stable, consolidating sideways rather than declining.

Impact of the Halving Event

The recent decrease in the Puell Multiple can be attributed to a crucial event: the Bitcoin halving. This event, which occurs approximately every four years, reduces the block reward by half.

The most recent halving took place last month, leading to a substantial reduction in miners’ revenues. Consequently, despite stable Bitcoin prices, the Puell Multiple has plunged, reflecting the diminished earnings of miners.

Implications for Investors

The drop in the Puell Multiple below one is a noteworthy signal for investors. According to a CryptoQuant expert, this decline may be interpreted as the market adjusting to a new phase of scarcity. Historically, such adjustments have often preceded significant price rallies.

Therefore, investors might view the current undervaluation indicated by the Puell Multiple as a potential buying opportunity, anticipating a future increase in Bitcoin’s value.

Bitcoin

Current Bitcoin Market Conditions

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $67,800, representing a 5% increase from the previous week. Despite the recent stability in price, the significant drop in the Puell Multiple underscores the impact of the halving event on miner revenues and highlights a period of potential undervaluation.

Conclusion

The recent decline of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple into the “undervalued” category is a critical development for the cryptocurrency market. This metric, which links miner revenues to Bitcoin’s price, suggests that the market is adjusting to reduced block rewards post-halving.

For investors, this period of undervaluation might indicate an opportune time to invest, potentially leading to substantial returns if the market follows historical patterns and rallies in response to increased scarcity.

As always, market participants should stay informed and consider both technical indicators and broader market conditions when making investment decisions.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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