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USD Comeback in Jeopardy as ADP Employment Confirms Weakness in the Labour market

The labour market has been strong in the US, helping keep the economy from falling into a recession, but in recent months we have seen some weaknesses, which have been increasing in recent weeks. Yesterday the JOLTS job openings fell below 9 million, to reach the lowest levels in almost two years, while today the ADP employment figures also indicated growing weaknesses, as November’s number came close to 100K, while October’s figure was also revised lower.

ADP employment for November

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Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP said that “During the post-pandemic recovery, restaurants and hotels were the largest job creators.” “However, that boost is over, and the return to trend in leisure and hospitality suggests that the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024”.

ADP US November Employment Report

  • November ADP Employment: +103,000 jobs.
  • Expectations for November: +130,000 jobs.
  • October ADP Employment (revised): +106,000 jobs (previously reported as +113,000).

Details by Business Size:

  • Small Businesses (less than 50 employees): +6,000 jobs (compared to +19,000 in the prior month).
  • Medium-Sized Businesses (50 – 499 employees): +68,000 jobs (compared to +78,000 in the prior month).
  • Large Businesses (500 or more employees): +33,000 jobs (compared to +18,000 in the prior month).

Changes in Pay:

  • Job Stayers: Wage growth reported at 5.6%, a slight decrease from the previous rate of 5.7%. This is the slowest pace since September 2021.
  • Job Changers: Wage growth reported at 8.3%, a slight decrease from the previous rate of 8.4%.

The numbers in the ADP report don’t point to a recession though, with employment growth slowing but continuing. It tells a similar story for wage growth as well, which is slowing. As a result, the USD hasn’t moved much, with GOLD trading up and down between $2,020 and $2,030 and

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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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