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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Hits $0.6595 Amid Fed Rate Speculations

As the trading day in Asia kicks off, the Australian dollar sees slight advancements against the US dollar, though it encounters resistance after reaching a monthly zenith of 0.6595. The AUD/USD pair has shown resilience, trading at $0.65705, marking a gain of 0.26% in the last 24 hours.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators

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  • The AUD/USD pair touched a monthly high of 0.6595 before facing resistance.
  • US unemployment claims fell, indicating strong labour market conditions.
  • Mixed PMI data suggests continued economic growth, potentially influencing Fed rate decisions.
The close of Wall Street at unprecedented highs reflects a positive market sentiment, further buoyed by encouraging US employment statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showing a decrease in unemployment claims.
Furthermore, S&P Global’s February Flash PMI data, although mixed, signals economic growth, lending support to the Federal Reserve’s inclination towards sustaining higher interest rates to combat inflation.

Federal Reserve’s Perspective and Impact on USD

The uptick in US Treasury bond yields, stemming from economic data, has somewhat limited the US dollar’s downturn, with the dollar index slightly decreasing. Conversations with Federal Reserve figures, including Vice-Chair Philip Jefferson, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Governor Lisa Cook, have provided insight into the central bank’s monetary policy direction.
  • Federal Reserve officials expressed varied views on the timing of interest rate cuts.
  • The US Dollar Index shows a marginal decline, reflecting the broader currency movement.
Jefferson’s cautious optimism on inflation and his open stance towards eventual rate reductions highlight a data-driven approach. Harker’s acknowledgement of a possible rate cut within the year, albeit not immediately, and Cook’s requirement for further evidence on inflation stability before endorsing rate reductions underscore a careful, measured approach to monetary policy adjustments.
In summary, the Australian dollar’s modest gains against the US dollar are tempered by technical resistance and global economic developments, including robust US labour market data and Federal Reserve officials’ comments on interest rates. Investors and traders are advised to monitor these factors closely as they navigate the AUD/USD market dynamics.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Currently positioned above its pivot point of $0.6548, the currency pair faces immediate resistance levels at $0.6583, $0.6609, and $0.6634.

Conversely, support levels are established at $0.6525, $0.6497, and $0.6470, delineating potential fallback positions.

AUD/USD Price Chart
The RSI stands at 58, indicating moderately bullish momentum. The 50-day EMA at $0.6539 further supports this bullish outlook, suggesting the pair’s potential to maintain its upward trajectory.
In conclusion, the AUD/USD exhibits a bullish trend as long as it remains above the $0.6539 threshold, highlighting a positive outlook for future trading sessions.
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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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