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Crude Oil and Brent Oil Weekly Outlook: Prices Hit 3.5-Month High Amid Russian Refinery Concerns

Crude oil prices soared to a three-and-a-half month peak, contrasting with a mixed performance in oil products amid varied demand and supply challenges.

While gasoline demand surged to a three-week high, distillate demand dipped due to an unusual winter heat wave. Russia’s hesitation to extend OPEC PLUS voluntary production cuts until year-end adds to market uncertainties.

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Russian refinery outages, exacerbated by Ukraine’s attacks, may tighten global distillate supplies, posing risks to the economy.

In the US, crude inventories increased, reaching their highest since mid-November, despite a continued decline in total inventories, underscoring complex global oil market dynamics.

Crude Oil (USOIL) Price Forecast

Crude Oil (USOIL) concluded the week on a positive note, registering a 1.94% increase to close at $79.75. This uptick situates USOIL above its pivot point of $79.31, suggesting a continued bullish momentum.

The asset now faces immediate resistance at $80.83, with further barriers at $81.87 and $83.01 that could test the strength of this upward trend.

Conversely, support levels are identified at $77.92, $77.18, and $75.81, providing potential safety nets against downward movements. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, indicating a strong buying interest without veering into overbought territory.

Crude Oil Price Chart

Additionally, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.11 underscores a bullish sentiment, further solidifying the asset’s positive trajectory.

In conclusion, USOIL’s current market stance is bullish as long as it remains above the $79.31 pivot point, signaling potential for further gains in the near term.

Brent Oil (UKOIL) Price Forecast

Brent Oil (UKOIL) ended the week on a high, climbing 2.05% to close at $83.33. This advancement positions UKOIL just below its pivot point of $83.98, indicating a potential bullish momentum if it can breach this level.

Looking forward, the asset faces resistance at $85.21, followed by $86.45 and $87.53, which could serve as benchmarks for further upward movement.

Brent Oil Price Chart

On the downside, support is found at $82.29, with additional safety nets at $81.01 and $79.52, safeguarding against significant pullbacks.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 60, suggesting a healthy market interest that is neither overbought nor oversold. Moreover, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82.37 reinforces the positive trend observed.

In summary, UKOIL exhibits a bullish trend contingent on surpassing the $83.95 threshold, hinting at continued gains in the forthcoming sessions.


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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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