The USD to CHF rate continues to trade in a range, however, we might see a strong surge today if US retail sales are strong. The Swiss Franc should have benefited from increased uncertainty as a safe haven, but USD/CHF and EUR/CHF have been bullish for quite some time and the outlook is still pointing up for both pairs. They remain well supported during pullbacks and it seems like now we are going to see another push to the upside.

USD/CHF Daily Chart – The 100 SMA Holds As Support

The recent Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures were largely in line with expectations, with the headline measure meeting estimates marginally, while the Core measure experienced a more significant decline. Despite this, at its most recent meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75%. The SNB reiterated its commitment to adjusting policy as necessary to ensure that inflation remains within the target range.

Despite the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeding forecasts for the second consecutive month, the market’s expectations for FED interest rate cuts remain unchanged. Similarly, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report exceeded forecasts on the headline number, but fell short on the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, so neither report helped the USD. But, the retreat in USD/CHF has been minimal compared to other USD pairs, indicating that buyers are still in charge here. Now, it seems like the market is getting ready for an assault on the upside.

The USD/CHF price action has been limited in recent days, forming several doji candlesticks on the daily timeframe, which point to a bullish reversal after the retreat. But for the moment we’re staying within the range defined by the key levels of support at 0.8670 and resistance at 0.8810 until the US retail sales figures are out. As a result, we maintain a neutral stance for now, until the price decisively breaks above the 200 SMA (purple).

EUR/CHF Daily Chart – MAs Pushing the Lows Higher

EUR/CHF has also been making some decent gains since the beginning of February, climbing around 3.5 cents higher. Buyers have broken above all moving averages, which have now turned into support, helping keep the trend bullish. The 200 SMA (purple) held in the last several days and after the hammer candlestick on Monday, yesterday this forex pair resumed the bullish trend. So, everything is pointing up for EUR/CHF.

USD/CHF Live Chart