The AUD to USD ratio has been declining since the start of 2024 and the uptrend in USD/CNY is helping the Aussie sellers. Today the volatility is very low as most markets are closed for the Easter weekend, but the selling pressure is still prevalent in this forex pair.

AUD/USD Chart Daily – The 200 SMA Has Now Turned into Resistance

Today marks the start of a new week, month, and quarter, but market activity has been subdued due to the Easter break. Despite the quietness, there is some volatility in Gold and UD/JPY, as US futures are showing slight gains. Last month, the Aussie experienced some volatility, initially showing signs of a breakout before encountering resistance following the US jobs report. Since then, sellers have gained control, leading to a break of the 0.6500 level which seems under pressure again today after AUD/USD closed the week above that level.

Currently, the 200-day moving average (blue line) at 0.6545 acts as significant resistance. Maintaining below this level could prompt sellers to retest the 0.6500 level. Additional support is present around 0.648-85 which was the low last week, preventing a deeper decline in AUD/USD. However, a break below this support could lead to a retest of the February low at 0.6450 and lower.

Economic Events This Week

This week, attention will once again turn to US employment reports, which will influence the dollar’s performance along with broader market sentiment. With no RBA policy meeting scheduled and limited data releases, the Australian dollar will be influenced by overall risk sentiment and movements in the Chinese yuan.

The USD/CNY recently breached the significant 7.20 mark for the year and has since consolidated around 7.23. Further weakening of the Chinese yuan, if permitted by Chinese authorities, could put downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

AUD/USD Live Chart