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What Are the Expectations for Today’s Non Farm Payrolls Report?

Today we have the biggest economic event of the week, the NFP report. Official expectations are for a slowdown in employment, but taking into account this week’s jobs reports we might get a positive surprise, which would reverse the course for the USD which has been declining since Tuesday.

U.S. non-farm payrolls expected to slow to 212K

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The employment figures released throughout the week have generally been better than expected or improved compared to previous readings. The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index rose to 47.4 points in March from 45.9 points previously, while the ISM Services Employment Index grew slightly to 48.5 points last month from 48.0 in February. The ADP Employment on Wednesday jumped to 184K versus the 148K predicted. Given these positive trends, it’s possible that the whisper figure for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could be slightly higher than the consensus estimate of 200,000.

Summary of Market Expectations for the US NFP Report:

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Expected to be 212,000 (previously 275,000)
  • Unemployment Rate: Expected to remain at 3.9% (unchanged from the previous report)
  • Average Hourly Earnings Month-on-Month (MM): Expected to increase by 0.3% (previously increased by 0.1%)
  • Average Hourly Earnings Year-on-Year (YY): Expected to be 4.1% (previously 4.3%)

Goldman Sachs Expectations for the Jobs Report

The forecast for the March US jobs report suggests a robust labor market, with expectations for solid job creation and a slight improvement in the unemployment rate. Goldman Sachs’ projection of a 215K increase in payrolls is supported by factors such as healthy immigration trends, positive employment indicators, and a low count of layoffs. The anticipated decline in the unemployment rate to 3.8% further underscores the strength of the labor market. However, it’s worth noting Goldman’s forecast for payroll growth to slow to 150,000 by the end of the year, indicating a more cautious outlook for the pace of labor market expansion in the coming months. Overall, the upcoming jobs report will be an important gauge of current economic health and could provide insights into future labor market trends.

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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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