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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Pair Navigates Bearish Waters at $0.6410 Amid RBA and Fed Policy Divergence

The AUD/USD pair continues to face a bearish market, hovering around the 0.64018 mark. This decline reflects a broader risk-averse sentiment in the market, driven largely by escalating geopolitical concerns, especially in the Middle East.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Market participants are particularly attentive to Israel’s potential reactions to Iran’s recent airstrikes, which have injected a degree of caution into trading strategies. In addition, the diverging monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) are exerting downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

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There is increasing speculation that the RBA might reduce interest rates to bolster economic growth, which contrasts with the Fed’s potentially more hawkish stance to stabilize or increase rates. Economic indicators from China, Australia’s major trade partner, showed a mixed picture.

China’s GDP grew by 1.6% quarter-over-quarter and 5.3% year-over-year, surpassing forecasts. However, its industrial production and retail sales figures for March showed more modest increases of 4.5% and 3.1% respectively.

The robust GDP growth should offer some support to the AUD by maintaining trade optimism and confidence in economic recovery.

RBA’s Interest Rate Strategy and Its Influence on the AUD/USD

The potential for the RBA to cut interest rates has raised market concerns, possibly leading to further depreciation of the AUD against the USD. Lower interest rates tend to diminish a currency’s appeal to yield-seeking investors, potentially driving capital outflows and exacerbating the downward trajectory of the AUD/USD pair.

U.S. Economic Strength and Its Effects on the AUD/USD

Conversely, the USD has found support from unexpectedly strong U.S. retail sales, which have reinforced confidence in the robustness of the U.S. economy and reduced expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts.

This surge in retail sales indicates vigorous consumer spending, crucial for economic expansion, and this optimism has translated into strength for the USD, placing additional pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on the AUD/USD

Finally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions are playing a significant role. The risk-off sentiment prevalent among traders due to the Middle East uncertainties is causing a shift towards safe-haven assets like the USD.

This movement is further weakening the AUD as traders prioritize stability over higher yields in the face of increased global uncertainty.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

On April 16, the AUD/USD pair closed down by 0.40%, settling at $0.64018. This movement reflects continued pressure on the Australian dollar, compounded by global risk aversion and divergent monetary policy expectations compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The daily chart establishes a critical pivot point at $0.6442. Should the pair breach this threshold, it could signal a shift towards a more bullish sentiment with potential resistance levels at $0.6538, $0.6634, and $0.6723.

Conversely, failure to surpass this pivot could reinforce bearish trends, pushing the pair towards immediate support at $0.6349, with further potential declines to $0.6291 and $0.6221.Technical indicators, including a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 34, suggest the AUD/USD is nearing oversold territory, which could precipitate a rebound if bullish triggers emerge.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

However, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6545 remains a distant hurdle, indicating that any recovery may be challenging. Current market dynamics suggest a cautious approach, with the next moves heavily dependent on breaking or sustaining the pivotal $0.6442 level.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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