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S&P500 Price Forecast: Weekly Slide to $4967 Amid Geopolitical & Market Uncertainties

S&P 500 extended its loss and dropped by -3.05% this week as it continued it bearish streak for the 3rd consecutive week. In the past 3 weeks, the SPX index has fallen by around -5.5% to its 9-weeks lowest level at $4967.24.

S&P 500 Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Let us examine some of the major reasons that drove the S&P 500 market this week.

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Netflix Fails despite Growth in Blockbuster Subscribers

Netflix announced outstanding Q1 subscriber figures, with 9.33 million net additions, exceeding forecasts. But worries about potential growth caused its stock price to fall by about 4%.

Concerns were stoked by the decision to cease disclosing quarterly membership figures, which implied a possible halt in consumer growth. Despite a large year-over-year rise, the estimated revenue for the current quarter fell short of expert estimates, which contributed to the decrease in Netflix shares.

Netflix’s growth concerns

The Company’s decision to cease providing quarterly membership figures and to raise doubts about its future growth possibilities, in spite of its robust subscriber growth, negatively impacted investor sentiment and caused the S&P 500 to drop.

Increased Tensions in the Middle East Affect Futures

U.S. market futures declined as a result of the growing tensions between Iran and Israel; the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures all saw weaker trading. Investor mood was dampened by this clash as worries of a wider regional conflict were rekindled.

The S&P 500 posted its third straight weekly loss, driven by waning hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the near future in addition to global uncertainties.

Tensions in the Middle East Affect Futures

U.S. stock futures declined as a result of the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, indicating increased investor risk aversion. The performance of the S&P 500 was impacted by the geopolitical uncertainties that exacerbated pre-existing worries about the direction of the market.

Crude Is Volatile; Iran Blasts Concern Supply

Crude prices rose at first after reports of Israeli strikes in Iran, but the gains were fleeting because the crisis didn’t seem to be very serious.

But worries about possible interruptions to the supply continued, which kept oil prices unstable. The resiliency of the US economy and the potential for extended hostilities in the Middle East affected the dynamics of the oil market, which led to a 3% weekly drop in crude prices.

Market volatility for crude oil:

Market mood and investor risk appetite were impacted by the volatility in crude oil prices, which was caused by supply issues and geopolitical tensions. Due to its sensitivity to changes in the energy markets, the S&P 500 saw more volatility during the week as oil prices varied.

Bitcoin Halving

The fourth halving event of Bitcoin, which reduced miner incentives to 3.125 BTC per block, might also had an impact on stock market this week. Investor behavior might had been impacted by its wider consequences for market sentiment, though.

Bitcoin price halvings have historically been linked to price increases, which may have an impact on investors’ willingness to take on risk.

Although Bitcoin and other stocks related to crypto mining institutions surged post halving, JPMorgan sees a possible decline in Bitcoin, while Goldman Sachs stresses the necessity of favorable macroeconomic conditions for Bitcoin’s sustained growth.

In general, the halving of Bitcoin raised market uncertainty and might also had an impact on mood and risk-taking in the S&P 500 this week.

S&P500 Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Today’s trading session saw the S&P 500 Index slipping to 4,967.24, marking a decrease of 0.88%. The downturn underscores a broader hesitation among investors, who are reacting to shifting economic signals and geopolitical concerns.

The index now hovers below its pivotal point of $5,038.80, setting a cautious tone in the market. Resistance levels are observed progressively at $5,107.34, $5,173.51, and $5,263.93, which will challenge any recovery attempts.

Conversely, immediate support forms near today’s low at $4,951.03, with further cushions at $4,883.16 and $4,802.48, serving as potential turning points should selling pressure intensify.

S&P 500 Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at a low 24 indicates oversold conditions, which might prompt a price correction. Moreover, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, stationed at $5,122.35, remains a distant barrier, emphasizing the index’s current bearish bias.

This technical setup suggests a cautious approach, with potential for volatility if the S&P 500 cannot sustain levels above $4,950.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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