Analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term future, with some predicting a surge to $150,000 and others warning of a potential dip. The recent halving event, which cut the supply of new Bitcoins in half, has ignited a debate about the leading cryptocurrency’s next move.

Bitcoin’s Scarcity Drives Value

Following the halving, Bitcoin’s inflation rate now sits below that of gold, making it a more attractive store of value. Analyst Charles Edwards argues that Bitcoin’s scarcity surpasses even gold, positioning it for significant price appreciation.

Market Validation

Market intelligence firm Glassnode confirms Bitcoin’s lower issuance rate compared to gold, a historic milestone. This development bolsters the argument that Bitcoin could become the scarcest tradable asset, further attracting investors.

Bitcoin Price Predictions and Market Dynamics

Analyst Arthur Hayes predicts a potential Bitcoin price surge to $1 million, highlighting its long-term potential. Standard Chartered, a major bank, forecasts a rise to $150,000, citing factors like structural market changes and ETF launches.

Edwards acknowledges potential changes in mining dynamics and transaction fees as Bitcoin’s price rises. However, Glassnode advises caution, noting that past halving trends may not perfectly predict future outcomes.

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Volatility

Recent military events caused a temporary dip in Bitcoin prices, highlighting its sensitivity to global situations. However, Bitcoin’s swift recovery demonstrates its evolving role as a hedge against traditional financial systems.

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick believes easing tensions and a “cleaner” market could propel Bitcoin’s price upwards.

Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Interest

The rise of Bitcoin ETFs is seen as a catalyst for growth, attracting billions of dollars from institutional investors. These ETFs reduce the supply of readily available Bitcoin, creating a bullish supply-demand dynamic.

While the US hasn’t yet approved spot Ether ETFs, global ETF adoption, particularly in Hong Kong and the UK, remains positive.

Challenges and Uncertainties

Regulatory hurdles and high US Treasury yields pose potential threats to Bitcoin’s price surge. The SEC’s delay in approving spot Ether ETFs highlights potential regulatory roadblocks.

Despite these uncertainties, the overall outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic. Standard Chartered maintains its $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by year-end, citing improved market conditions and ongoing institutional adoption.

BTC/USD Technical Outlook and Resistance Levels

In the short term, Bitcoin faces resistance zones between $66,700 and $65,800. Overcoming these hurdles and surpassing $73,800 with high trading volume is crucial for a sustained bullish trend.

Failing to break above these levels could lead to a retest of support levels around $62,300 and potentially lower.