GBP to USD Up After Higher US Employment Costs/Earnings
The USD to GBP rate continues to climb, while GBP/USD has fallen by 6 cents since the first week of March and US earnings pushed it down too
Skerdian Meta•Tuesday, April 30, 2024•2 min read
The USD to GBP rate continues to climb, while GBP/USD has fallen by 6 cents since the first week of March. This decline occurred after encountering resistance at the 200-weekly Simple Moving Average (SMA), although the 100 SMA is currently acting as a support level on the H4 chart today. The descent has been relatively swift, but GBP sellers face a challenge at the 100 SMA, after falling as a result of higher US employment costs.
GBP/USD Chart Weekly – Bouncing Between 2 MAs
GBP/USD has experienced heightened selling pressure since March, resulting in the price dropping to a low of $1.2299 earlier this month. This decline is primarily driven by increasing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will implement more aggressive monetary easing measures, however we saw a retrace higher last week, as the USD turned softer. Market sentiment suggests anticipation of a BOE rate cut in June, while today US employment earnings increased higher, which is pushing the FED rate cut further back, adding downward pressure on the pound and amplifying the pair’s downward trajectory.
US Employment Cost Index for Q1 2021
- The Employment Cost Index for Q1 came in at 1.2%, exceeding the expected 1.0%.
- The prior quarter recorded a growth of 0.9%, which was slightly below the expected 1.0%.
For Q1 2024:
- The Employment Cost Index grew by 1.2%, compared to the anticipated 1.0%.
- Wages increased by 1.1%, up from 0.9% in the previous month.
- Benefits also rose by 1.1%, compared to 0.7% last month.
Year-on-year (YoY) comparisons show lower numbers compared to the previous year but still elevated:
- Overall compensation costs increased by 4.2% for the year ending in March 2024, down from a 4.8% increase in the previous year (March 2023).
- Wages and salaries rose by 4.4% for the year ending in March 2024, compared to a 5.0% increase in the year ending in March 2023.
- Benefit costs increased by 3.7% for the year ending in March 2024, down from a 4.5% increase in the year ending in March 2023.
GBP/USD Live Chart
GBP/USD
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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