The rate of USD to CHF has turned volatile this week after being steady for most of April. USD/CHF broke the resistance and pushed above 0.92 earlier this week, and despite the retreat below this level yesterday following the FOMC meeting, the previous resistance zone at 0.9150s turned into support.

USD/CHF Chart H4 – MAs Continue to Support the Bullish Trend

Last week the SNB confirmed that they have finished the job with inflation as SNB chairman Thomas Jordan pointed out. The lows were still getting higher for USD/CHF which was a bullish signal, and Jordan’s comments last week added further weakness to the CHF, sending this pair higher, above 0,92.

Last night the FED last night refused rate hikes, which was a relieve for the markets, hence the dive in this pair. But FED Chairman Jerome Powell also didn’t commit to rate cuts, so we’re back where we were regarding the FED, higher rates for longer. Today the Swiss CPI inflation and retail sales for April didn’t change much for this pair.

Swiss Inflation CPI for April

• April CPI +1.4% vs +1.1% y/y expected
• Prior +1.0%
• Core CPI +1.2% y/y
• Prior +1.0%

After having talked about successfully beating inflation, this is a minor setback for the SNB. Headline annual inflation was a beat on estimates, coming in at 1.4% with core annual inflation also ticking higher to 1.2%. Still, the numbers are keeping well below the crucial 2% mark for now. And that’s the important thing in vindicating the SNB’s policy pivot.

Swiss Retail Sales for April

• Retail Sales Y/Y -0.1% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior (revised from -0.2%).
• Retail Sales M/M -0.4% vs. 0.1% prior (revised from -0.1%).

USD/CHF Live Chart