AUD/USD Holds Strong at $0.6666 Amid US Economic Data and Hawkish Fed Outlook

Despite a backdrop of hawkish Federal Reserve minutes and robust U.S. economic data, the AUD/USD price has exhibited resilience, trading around the 0.6666 mark and reaching an intraday high of 0.6674.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

This strength is partly due to a risk-on market mood fueled by positive U.S. economic figures, notably a surprising 0.7% month-over-month increase in April’s Durable Goods Orders, which was expected to decline by 0.8%.

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Impact of US Economic Developments on AUD/USD Price

The U.S. dollar has struggled to gain despite favorable data and Fed comments, primarily due to falling U.S. Treasury yields. Conversely, subdued growth in Australia’s retail sales for April could signal economic challenges ahead, potentially dampening the Australian dollar’s outlook.

Federal Reserve’s Policy and Its Effect on AUD/USD

In the United States, despite mixed signals, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has dropped to 44.9%. Upcoming speeches by Fed officials like Michelle Bowman and Loretta Mester may further influence the dollar’s trajectory. Meanwhile, positive shifts in key U.S. economic indicators such as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index and Durable Goods Orders underscore the complex dynamics at play, which currently support the AUD/USD.

Australia’s Economic Prospects and External Influences

Enhancing the AUD’s appeal, Australia benefits from China’s economic measures, including significant support for the property sector and a substantial fund to boost its semiconductor industry. These developments in China, a key trade partner, could indirectly strengthen the AUD due to their close economic ties.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Perspective

The AUD/USD is presently trading at $0.66583, showing a mild gain on the 4-hour chart. Key resistance levels lie at $0.6684 and $0.6711, with support at $0.6638 and $0.6617.

AUD/USD Price Chart

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57 and the 50-day EMA at $0.6654 both suggest a cautiously bullish outlook, pending developments in U.S. monetary policy and China’s economic adjustments.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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