DAX30, FTSE 100 End Down After Lower ECB Inflation Expectations
Skerdian Meta•Tuesday, May 28, 2024•2 min read
Yesterday stock markets made some nice gains, with Dax30 and UK FTSE 100 increasing more than 1%. But, today we are seeing a reversal despite risk currencies continuing to climb higher. The German index DAX is down by -0.5%, while the FTSE 100 is down by -0.7% at the London close, with the ECB lower the inflation expectations.
ECB Inflation Expectations Survey
Earlier today the European Central Bank released the results of the Inflation Expectations Survey, which came lower. The downward revision in inflation expectations, particularly for the upcoming year, suggests a more subdued outlook for price pressures. This trend aligns with the ECB’s intentions to implement a rate decrease, expected to occur in the following week.
However, while reducing costs may be relatively straightforward, achieving sustainable inflation levels in line with the ECB’s target of 2% poses a more significant challenge. The shift in inflation expectations likely contributed to the bearish sentiment observed in European stocks, as reflected in the negative performance of major indices such as the German DAX , UK FTSE 100, French CAC, Italy MIB, and Spain IBEX. Despite an initial uptick during the early hours of the European session, stocks reversed course and ended the day lower, forming a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.
Dax Index Chart H4 – The retreat Stopped at the 50 SMA
European Stock Market Close:
UK FTSE 100: -0.7%
German DAX: -0.5%
Stoxx 600: -0.6%
French CAC: -0.9%
Italy MIB: -0.2%
Spain IBEX: -0.5%
Remarks by ECB Policymaker, Mario Centeno
Interest rate reduction process is about to begin
Inflation is under control
ECB Member Knot
Projection round meetings will be key for rate decisions
Policy rates will slowly but gradually move to less-restrictive levels
Based on March projections, optimal policy would have been broadly in line with 3-4 rate cuts this year
Wage growth elevated and will be bumpy in 2024 so unclear what optimal policy path June projection will show
Have to avoid any commitments on a specific future rate path
The risk of a hard landing in eurozone is receding fairly rapidly
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.