USD/CAD Targets 1.4016 as U.S.-China Truce and Canada Jobs Data Weigh In
The US dollar is up against the Canadian dollar, rising from support at 1.3960 within a rising channel, boosted by global sentiment...
Quick overview
- The US dollar has strengthened against the Canadian dollar, rising from support at 1.3960 due to positive global sentiment and US-China trade developments.
- A temporary truce between the US and China, including a rollback of tariffs, has boosted demand for the US dollar.
- The Canadian dollar is under pressure following a surprising increase in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, raising concerns about the economy.
- USD/CAD is targeting key levels of 1.4016 and 1.4040, with a potential bullish outlook if it breaks above 1.4016.
The US dollar is up against the Canadian dollar, rising from support at 1.3960 within a rising channel, boosted by global sentiment and US-China trade developments. The 2-hour chart shows a bounce at the 50-EMA at 1.3918, so bullish.
What’s behind this USD strength? Over the weekend, the US and China reached a temporary truce, pausing any new tariffs for 90 days. The US rolled back 24% of tariffs and China responded in kind. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the previous tariff regime was “unsustainable” and Trade Rep Jamieson Greer mentioned ongoing challenges including fentanyl trafficking.
This boosted equities and demand for the US dollar, with the Dollar Index (DXY) holding at 101.60.
Canada’s Job Report Puts Pressure on Loonie
Meanwhile the Canadian dollar is under pressure. The April job report surprised with a jump in the unemployment rate to 6.9% – its highest since 2021. Economists had expected a small increase to 6.8% but the bigger than expected increase is a red flag for the economy.
This has sparked renewed speculation the Bank of Canada may have to cut rates sooner than expected. Markets are now pricing in a dovish pivot from the BoC, which is adding to loonie pressure.
USD/CAD Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
USD/CAD is inside a well defined rising channel on the 2-hour chart. After finding support at 1.3960, the pair is now targeting 1.4016. A clean break above this level could see 1.4040 – the April high.
Trade Setup Summary:
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Buy Entry: 1.3960-1.3970 (channel support + bounce)
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Target 1: 1.4016
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Target 2: 1.4040
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Stop Loss: Below 1.3915 (EMA + invalidation zone)
The MACD histogram is flattening, so wait for a close above 1.4016 before adding to longs.
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