JSE Top 40 Steady at 84,400—Rand Up, But Mining Drags

South Africa’s economic engine is still sputtering. The JSE Top 40 Index—SA40—is hovering around 84,774. That’s because of sustained weakness in mining and manufacturing. Mining output fell 2.8% year-on-year in March—its fifth decline in a row. February saw a 9.7% drop. Platinum group metals led the way down, with a 13.7% contraction in Q1 alone. Gold production remains subdued.

Manufacturing has been in a downturn for eight months now. That sector shrank by 2.3% in Q1 2025. With an unemployment rate of 32.9%, you can see why that dual-sector drag is a concern. It signals muted GDP growth ahead. Forecasts suggest just 0.2% growth for the first quarter.

Rand Gains 1.1% on Policy Shift Hopes

That’s where the rand comes in. Despite all these structural challenges, it gained 1.1% against the U.S. dollar. The South African rand is now near 18.08 ZAR/USD. That’s after Deputy Finance Minister David Masondo hinted at reforms to the 3-6% inflation target band. Those moves could reinforce long-term price stability and investor confidence.

Now, everyone’s waiting for some key events: the South African Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision on May 29, a revised budget presentation by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana on the same day, and a trade summit between Presidents Ramaphosa and Trump on May 21.

JSE Technical Setup: JSE Holds Above Key Support

From a technical standpoint, the SA40 index remains above its rising trendline and 50-period EMA—at 84,409. Price action has repeatedly found support there, forming a bullish structure with higher lows. Resistance looms at 85,516—a level that has rejected upside moves throughout May.

The momentum indicators are hinting at a potential reversal. If we see a bullish engulfing candle above 85,516, we could see the index move up toward 86,113 and 86,794. But if it breaks below 84,400, that would shift focus to 83,603.

For new traders: patience is key. Wait for clear confirmation of trend continuation before entering long positions. And be aware of those macro risks.