Mexican Peso Weakens Against the Dollar After Seven-Day Winning Streak

Over the course of its seven-session run, the peso gained 43.76 centavos, or 2.28%, hitting its strongest level since August 20.

Written by: Ignacio Teson • Wednesday, July 2, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Quick overview

The Mexican peso depreciated against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, ending a seven-day winning streak due to weaker U.S. labor data.
The exchange rate closed at 18.7681 pesos per dollar, reflecting a loss of 0.20% for the local currency.
Markets are focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, with expectations that weak readings could lead to interest rate cuts.
Despite the recent setback, analysts maintain a positive outlook for the peso, with key support and resistance levels identified.

The Mexican peso depreciated against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, breaking a seven-day winning streak, as markets reacted to weaker-than-expected U.S. labor data.

The exchange rate closed at 18.7681 pesos per dollar, compared to 18.7307 the previous day, according to official figures from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). This represents a loss of 3.74 centavos, or 0.20%, for the local currency.

During the session, the dollar traded in a range between a high of 18.8154 and a low of 18.7167 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—which compares the greenback against a basket of six major currencies—rose 0.16% to 96.79 points.

USD/MXN

Focus Shifts to U.S. Data

Markets digested the latest ADP National Employment Report, which showed a loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June. This followed a downward revision for May to just 29,000 jobs created, well below analysts’ expectations of a 95,000-job gain.

Investors also remain focused on the approval process for President Donald Trump’s new fiscal and spending package, which cleared the Senate yesterday. Analysts estimate the plan could add $3.3 trillion to the U.S. national debt.

Attention now turns to Thursday’s release of the official nonfarm payroll report, a key data point for the Federal Reserve, which maintains a dual mandate of price stability and full employment. A second consecutive weak reading could strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts.

Losing Momentum After Strong Run

The peso’s recent rally had been supported by easing geopolitical tensions—namely, the end of a 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel—and early-week signs of progress in U.S.-Canada trade talks.

Over the course of its seven-session run, the peso gained 43.76 centavos, or 2.28%, hitting its strongest level since August 20. Despite the setback, technical analysts still view the overall trend as positive for the peso.

Investors should expect the recovery to continue. A break below 18.65 would reinforce bullish momentum. The next support level is around 18.55 pesos, while resistance stands at 18.85.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.