Mexican Peso Weakens as Dollar Gains Strength; Closes at 18.75 per Dollar

Given current trends, analysts expect the peso to trade between 18.76 and 18.83 through the end of the day.

Written by: Ignacio Teson • Thursday, July 17, 2025 • 1 min read

Last updated: Thursday, July 17, 2025

Quick overview

The Mexican peso depreciated against the U.S. dollar, closing at 18.7569 pesos per dollar, a loss of 0.16%.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and a decline in jobless claims boosted the dollar's value.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in June, exceeding forecasts and indicating economic strength.
Analysts predict the peso will trade between 18.76 and 18.83 through the end of the day.

The Mexican peso depreciated against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, following the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and a decline in jobless claims, which boosted the greenback.

The exchange rate closed the session at 18.7569 pesos per dollar, compared to 18.7274 on Wednesday, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This represented a loss of 2.95 centavos, or 0.16%, for the Mexican currency.

The dollar traded in a range between a high of 18.8455 and a low of 18.7217 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies — rose 0.36% to 98.64 points.

USD/MXN

Strong U.S. Economic Data

U.S. retail sales increased 0.6% month-over-month in June, beating expectations of 0.2%, and rose 3.5% year-over-year. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.5%, also exceeding the forecast of 0.3%.

While these figures are positive for the U.S. economy, they may complicate the outlook for President Donald Trump, as a strong economy and a firmer dollar support arguments for holding interest rates steady.

Labor Market Supports Rate Pause

On the labor front, jobless claims fell to 221,000 in the week ending July 12 — down 7,000 from the prior week and below the consensus estimate of 234,000 — pointing to continued strength in the labor market.

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler added to the sentiment by saying the central bank should hold off on rate cuts “for some time” as tariffs begin to show up in inflation data.

Short-Term Outlook

Given current trends, analysts expect the peso to trade between 18.76 and 18.83 through the end of the day. In overnight trading, the expected range is 18.72 to 18.83.

Check out our free forex signals
Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
Open a FREE Trading Account

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.