Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle Is Over: $154B ETF Surge Signals New Market Era
The four year cycle is dead, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management.
Quick overview
- Matt Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management claims the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead due to increased institutional investment.
- The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has led to over $154 billion in assets under management, significantly impacting Bitcoin's price stability.
- Bitcoin's volatility has decreased in 2024, with institutional strategies contributing to a more stable market environment.
- Regulatory clarity from recent legislation has attracted major financial institutions to explore crypto products.
The four year cycle is dead, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Hougan declared the “crypto four year cycle is dead” and pointed to institutional investors as the main disruptor.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price was driven by three main factors: halvings, macro and high volatility. Halvings, every 4 years, cut the rewards for Bitcoin miners in half and reduced supply and often drove up prices.
But that broke in 2024. After the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, institutional capital flooded in. Bitcoin hit an all time high before the April halving and that was a structural shift. Hougan said traditional institutions are now “driving” the market more than retail investors.
$154B in Assets
The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US has been game changing. These funds now manage over $154 billion in assets with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leading the way. IBIT alone has over 700,000 BTC in assets under management (AUM) this month. That’s how fast institutions are getting into crypto.
This has reduced Bitcoin’s volatility. Unlike previous cycles with sharp corrections, BTC’s price movements in 2024 have been more stable, supported by long term institutional strategies and macro alignment.
Key points:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs now have $154B+ AUM
- IBIT has 700,000 BTC under management
- Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased in recent months
Hougan said “2026 will be a good year for crypto” meaning a longer steady growth phase not explosive rallies and crashes.
Regulation and Wall Street Interest
Another factor is regulation. The recent GENIUS bill signed into law by President Trump has brought clarity for crypto companies and piqued Wall Street’s interest.
Major institutions like JPMorgan, Charles Schwab and Standard Chartered are reportedly exploring crypto products. Even government backed agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are looking at digital assets for loan portfolios.But he also cautioned of other risks. Treasury companies buying Bitcoin is the biggest cyclical style risk.
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