Oil Marks Third Consecutive Gain, Hits Six-Week High
Analysts at JPMorgan noted that while China is unlikely to comply with U.S. sanctions, India has signaled a potential willingness to do so.
Quick overview
- Crude prices have risen for three consecutive sessions, reaching six-week highs due to geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade measures against Russian oil.
- Brent crude increased by 1.5% to $72.78 per barrel, while WTI rose 1.8% to $70.45, marking an 8.4% surge in July.
- President Trump has threatened steep tariffs on countries trading with Russia, with potential secondary sanctions looming if progress in Ukraine is not made.
- Analysts suggest that while China may resist U.S. sanctions, India could comply, potentially affecting 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports.
Crude prices climbed for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, reaching their highest levels in six weeks amid growing geopolitical tensions and expectations of new U.S. trade measures targeting Russian oil.
Brent’s most active futures rose 1.5% to $72.78 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude in the U.S. advanced 1.8% to $70.45. Both benchmarks are now at their highest since June 20. So far in July, oil prices have surged 8.4%.
The market is closely watching for updates on U.S. President Donald Trump’s hardening stance toward Russia and his threats of steep tariffs on countries that continue to trade in Russian oil. These geopolitical developments have added momentum to oil’s recent rally.
Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods imported from India, alongside additional duties targeting countries that purchase oil from Russia. He also warned that secondary sanctions—100% tariffs—could be imposed on Russia’s trading partners if the Kremlin fails to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days, significantly shortening an earlier 50-day deadline.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, echoed the warning in a press conference in Stockholm, saying China—the largest buyer of Russian oil—could face heavy tariffs if it continues its purchases.
Analysts at JPMorgan noted that while China is unlikely to comply with U.S. sanctions, India has signaled a potential willingness to do so. This could impact as much as 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports.
“Recent developments have nudged the market higher, but we’re still trading within a broader range and testing the next resistance level,” one analyst noted, suggesting that further price moves may hinge on political developments in the coming days.
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