Stocks, Commodities Post Tight Daily Ranges

Posted Tuesday, March 31, 2020 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

Comparatively speaking, it’s been a quiet day on Wall Street. U.S. stocks are rotating near flat with the DJIA DOW (-215), S&P 500 SPX (-25), and NASDAQ (-45) all posting losses. For the time being, traders and investors are taking a moment to re-evaluate the state of the markets.

March has been a big month for traders and the coronavirus-driven market dynamic. However, tomorrow marks the first trading day of April and the release of a few much-anticipated economic reports. Here is a quick preview of the 1 April U.S. economic calendar:

Event                                                                                    Projected     Previous

ADP Employment Change (March)                                   -154,000          183,000

ISM Manufacturing Employment Index (March)              45.4                 46.9

ISM Manufacturing PMI (March)                                         45.0                 50.1

One positive about the COVID-19 pandemic is that economic expectations aren’t that high. If the 1 April reports outperform consensus estimates, we may actually see some bids hit risk assets. Right now, unemployment is the key issue; should the ADP Employment Change (March) outperform expectations, there may be some optimism that the COVID-19 economic fallout may have peaked.

A Slow Tuesday For U.S. Stocks

American stocks are slightly in the red just over the halfway point of the Wall Street session. June E-mini S&P 500 futures continue to rotate near the 2600.00 handle amid moderate participation.

June E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES), Daily Chart

Here are the key levels to watch in this market as we roll toward mid-week trade:

  • Resistance(1): 50% Current Wave, 2652.50
  • Support(1): 38% Current Wave, 2539.50

Overview: Right now, it’s anyone’s guess which way the markets are heading. WTI crude oil is at multi-decade lows, gold is experiencing selling pressure, and U.S. stocks appear to have based. For the time being, it looks like Wall Street is in a holding pattern as institutional capital is happy on the sidelines.

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