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Forex Signals Brief November 24: Will US PMIs Show A Positive Surprise Too?

With the US being onThanksgiving holiday, trading desks were operating lightly. Flash manufacturing and services PMI figures were issued during the EU session,with Germany and the EU beating estimates in both manufacturing and services PMI statistics, but France underperformed in both sectors.

Additionally, following a court ruling earlier this week Germany’s finance minister Lindner declared that money intended for pandemic recovery could not be used to pay other government programs, indicating the government will suspend borrowing limitations for this year.

The UK data also showed improvement in both manufacturing and services PMI,with the latter coming out of contraction. In the Middle East, plans for a truce/hostage release appear to be underway which has helped improve the sentiment, so let’s see how it goes.

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Today starts with the Japanese Core CPI inflation YoY which is predicted to rise to 3.0% from 2.8% previously, while no consensus exists for the other metrics at the time of writing. This inflation report will not likely affect the Bank of Japan unless there are major surprises. The Bank of Japan is focused on wage growth, with the June 2024 spring wage discussions in mind.

The day following Thanksgiving is another holiday in the United States, with markets closing early, but we will also receive the manufacturing and services PMI figures for October, which are expected to have some decent impact on financial markets. The US Manufacturing PMI is projected to fall into contraction to 49.8 points from 50.0 points in October, while the Services PMI is expected to dip to 50.3 points this month from 50.6 points previously.

Besides that, today we will also see the retail sales report from Canada, with core sales expected to turn negative in September and show a 0.3% decline after increasing by 0.1% in the previous month, while headline sales are expected to remain flat at 0.0% after falling by 0.1% in August.

 

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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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