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Forex Signals Brief Feb 12: January Inflation Data to Drive Markets

Inflation is expected to continue to slow further this month in the US

Last week most markets were slow, however, what stood out was the bullish momentum in US indices, which reached new record highs, with the S&P500 closing above 5,000 points. Major tech companies had the biggest share of the gains, but other companies also benefited from the positive sentiment.

The USD slipped lower as a result, while risk currencies pushed higher for most of the week. However, the bullish momentum wasn’t too convincing, so it’s likely that they will resume the decline again this week, depending on the inflation figures. Crude Oil also benefited from the upbeat risk sentiment, remaining bullish throughout the week, gaining around $6, helped by the conflict in Gaza and the Middle East as well.

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The economic calendar was light in general, with the meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia being the main event, which left interest rates unchanged at 4.35%, while mentioning rate cuts. The employment figures from the US and Canada were positive, which helped keep the sentiment positive.

This  Week’s Market Expectations

This is an ‘inflationary’ week, with many inflation reports for January to be released. Markets are looking at the US CPI (consumer price index) which will be released tomorrow, as well as the retail sales on Thursday, with the headline in both expected to show a decline for last month. There will also be important data from the UK, with the CPI and the GDP reports, which will likely have a decent impact on the GBP.

Below are the main events for the week:

  • Tuesday: UK Labour Market report, Switzerland CPI, German ZEW, US CPI.
  • Wednesday: UK CPI, Eurozone Industrial Production.
  • Thursday: Japan GDP, UK GDP, UK Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, US Industrial Production, PBoC MLF.
  • Friday: UK Retail Sales, US PPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
BTC/USD – Daily Chart 

Ethereum Makes It to $2,500

ETHEREUM‘s price has also varied, decreasing from about $2,700 since the launch of BTC ETFs, but the general trend is good because it has yet to reach lower lows. The price fell below the 20 daily SMA (grey) yesterday, but it remains above the 50 SMA (yellow), which serves as the last support indicator during deeper pullbacks such as this one. We generated another long-term buy ETH signal at the 50 SMA, and the price is getting close to the take profit target.

Ethereum – Daily Chart
  • ETH Buy Signal
  • Entry Price: $2,290
  • Stop Loss: $2,590
  • Take Profit: $1,750
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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