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Forex Signals Brief Feb 13: All Attention Is at the US CPI Numbers

January CPI inflation expected to fall by 5 points

Yesterday was characterized by a light calendar and minimal changes overall, with Asian markets being off for the Chinese New year although there were some noteworthy moments. Initially, the USD slipped lower but then reversed and moved up, while US bond yields experienced selling. EUR/USD dipped to 1.0757, while the GBP/USD also slipped below 1.26 lows.

The market saw a swift reversal as investor sentiment improved in the equities market. This turnaround breathed new life into commodities, leading to a bounce in Oil prices after comments from the Saudi Energy Minister, bolstering the CAD as well. Indices continued to move higher and make new record highs, while the foreign exchange market saw relatively little change throughout the day.

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Today’s Market Expectations

The UK unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 4.0% this time from 3.9%. Although the traders’ attention is likely to be on wage growth figures, with Average Earnings excluding Bonus anticipated to be at 6.0%, down from 6.6% previously, and Average Earnings including Bonus expected to be at 5.7%, down from 6.0% earlier. This data will influence market expectations for the BOE monetary policy.

The CPI report from Switzerland comes next, with headline inflation year-on-year forecasted to tick down 1.6% from 1.7% previously. The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) Chairman Jordan has indicated that the central bank expects inflation to average less than 2% for the year, despite a short-term uptick.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be the highlight of the day, and inflation year-on-year (Y/Y) is anticipated to lose 5 points, falling to 2.9%, down from the previous reading of 3.4%. The Core CPI Y0Y is expected to tick lower to 3.8%, a slight decrease from the previous 3.9%, while the core MoM reading is expected to remain steady at 0.3%. The month-on-month (MoM) measure is expected to remain unchanged as well at 0.2%. A lower-than-expected reading would accelerating rate cut expectations from the FED and a higher-than-expected figure possibly delaying them.

BTC/USD – Daily Chart 

Booking Profit on Ethereum

ETHEREUM‘s price has been gaining upside momentum after the retreat lower in January, which sent it close to $2,000. We decided to open a buy ETH signal down there which was going well as buyers came back. Yesterday they pushed the price above $2,600, triggering the take profit on our trade.

Ethereum – Daily Chart
  • ETH Buy Signal
  • Entry Price: $2,290
  • Stop Loss: $2,590
  • Take Profit: $1,750
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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