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Mixed Fundamentals Keeping NZD to USD Ratio in A Range

NZD/USD  still faces the top of the range

NZD/USD has shown lack of direction, with the NZD to USD ratio fluctuating in a 100 pip range for a month.  The RBNZ hasn’t mentioned rate cuts yet, while economic data from New Zealand has also been mixed. However today it started with a jump above MAs, after a improvement in business services for January in New Zealand.

The New Zealand Business Services Index increased from 48.8 points in December to 52.1 points in January. While this represents an improvement from the previous month, it is still below the long-term average for this metric, which stands at 54.3 points. This suggests that although there was growth in business services activity from December to January, it has not yet reached the levels typically seen over the long term. But it was a nice improvement, which leaves behind the contraction seen in December.

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New Zealand Data – January Business Services Index

  • January BusinessNZ Services Index PMI 52.1 points, there were no estimates
  • February BusinessNZ Services Index PMI 48.8 points
  • Long-term average for this indicator is 54.3 point

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Comment:

“The combined PMI and PSI activity index (PCI) suggests that annual GDP growth is poised for improvement in the near future. This is welcome news for an economy that has been facing challenges. However, there is still considerable ground to cover before we reach growth rates that effectively utilize the economy’s spare capacity and prevent further expansion of slack.”

So, this forex pair continues to remain uncertain, trading within the 100-120 pip range. The support zone comes at around 0.6050, while the resistance stretches between 0.6160-70. Breaking the indicated support would lead the price to repeat the main bearish wave, which targets 0.6000 as the next station, whilst surpassing the resistance represents the key to ending the bearish track and heading for the upside which is open until 0.6230. Now, the price is closer to the resistance so we’re following the price action to see if buyers can push above the resistance today.

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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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