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Gold Price Hits $2025: Fed’s Rate Strategy & Middle East Tensions Stir Market

The gold price (XAU/USD) is displaying a slight upward movement in the Asian trading session on Friday, although it remains subdued under the shadow of the recent peak achieved two weeks ago.

Gold Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The FOMC meeting minutes from late January and subsequent comments from key Fed officials underscore a cautious approach towards rate cuts, maintaining support for higher US Treasury yields. This scenario, combined with the ongoing global equity market rally, poses challenges for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.

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Key Influences on Gold’s Value

Elevated US Treasury yields and a global equity market rally present challenges for gold.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East offer some support, mitigating the downside risk. The US dollar’s struggle for traction, despite a hawkish Fed outlook, may benefit gold prices.

However, the potential for further geopolitical unrest in the Middle East offers a buffer against significant losses for gold. The US dollar’s failure to advance, despite anticipations of a hawkish Fed, might bolster gold, especially in the absence of significant economic announcements.

Nonetheless, investors are advised to proceed with caution before making any aggressive bullish bets on XAU/USD, given the complex backdrop.

Geopolitical Tensions and Fed’s Hawkish Stance

Recent developments, such as intensified attacks in the Middle East and cautious remarks from Fed officials, contribute to a complex environment for gold. The Fed’s reluctance to lower interest rates soon, highlighted by the latest FOMC minutes and officials’ comments, suggests a challenging path ahead for gold prices.

Meanwhile, market expectations, as indicated by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, show a mixed outlook for rate cuts, with significant anticipation built around the Fed’s future meetings.

  • Geopolitical tensions and Fed comments create a nuanced backdrop for gold prices.
  • Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain divided, influencing gold’s short-term outlook.

Labour Market Strength and Bond Yields

Recent labour market data showing a decrease in unemployment claims underscores the economy’s resilience, potentially impacting Fed decisions.

Additionally, steady yields on 10-year US government bonds, supporting the dollar, could limit gold’s gains amidst prevailing risk-on sentiment. The Eurozone’s PMI data, indicating a milder downturn in business activity, further reinforces a cautious stance towards gold investments.

In summary, while gold prices (XAU/USD) show signs of modest gains, the broader economic and geopolitical landscape warrants careful consideration. Investors should closely monitor developments in US monetary policy, global geopolitical events, and market sentiment as they navigate the gold market.

Gold Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Gold’s current price stands at $2025.9, marking a modest increase of 0.10% from the previous day. The pivot point is set at $2023.36, indicating a narrowly positive sentiment in the market.

Resistance levels are identified at $2038.69, $2053.29, and $2065.71, which gold may test if the upward trend continues. Conversely, support levels at $2013.20, $1999.91, and $1988.19 provide a cushion against potential declines.

GOLD Price Chart

The RSI at 54 suggests neutral to slightly bullish momentum. The 50-day EMA at $2020.710 acts as critical support, reinforcing a buying trend above this threshold.

In conclusion, gold’s outlook appears bullish as long as it remains above the $2020 mark, hinting at sustained investor confidence and the potential for further gains.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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