The US Dollar has been trying to make a comeback this week, helped by the stronger PCE inflation yesterday. Today though, the ISM manufacturing report showed that the activity in this sector dived deeper in contraction, which gave the USD a kick lower, sending is around 50 pips down across the board.

US February 2024 Manufacturing Data

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• Prices paid: 52.5 points, slightly lower than the previous reading of 52.9 points.
• Employment: 45.9 points, down from the previous reading of 47.1 points, indicating a decline in employment levels within the manufacturing sector.
• New orders: 49.2 points, showing a decrease from the previous reading of 52.5 points, indicating a slowdown in new order growth.
• Inventories: 45.3 points, lower than the previous reading of 46.2 points, suggesting a decrease in inventories.
• Production: 48.4 points, down from the previous reading of 50.4 points, indicating a decline in production levels.

The US February 2024 Manufacturing data came in weaker than expected, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI printing at 47.8 points compared to the consensus forecast of 49.5. This indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the month. Here are the key details:

The market sentiment quickly reversed following the release of a series of disappointing US economic data. The US dollar had been trading at the day’s highs prior to the data releases, partly driven by a stronger S&P Global manufacturing PMI and hawkish comments from Barkin. There were concerns that the Federal Reserve might be moving towards a more hawkish stance, which could potentially rule out rate cuts in the first half of the year and even raise doubts about any rate cuts for the rest of the year.

EUR/USD traded at 1.0800 before the data and has since risen to 1.0835, recovering most of yesterday’s decline. The bond market reaction has been particularly noteworthy, with US 10-year yields dropping to 4.205% from 4.295% just before the data release. The 4.20% level has been a critical threshold for 10-year yields so far this year.