Last week, the Dollar Index closed at 104.486, marking a slight drop of 0.05%. This subtle change reflects the mixed economic signals from the U.S. and global markets.

Forex Economic Events Recap:

• On Monday, U.S. New Home Sales slightly missed expectations at 662K versus the forecasted 675K.
• Tuesday’s data showed a positive surprise in U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders, rising by 0.5% against the expected 0.4%, while overall Durable Goods Orders increased by 1.4%, rebounding from the previous -6.2% drop.
• The U.S. Consumer Confidence index on Tuesday slightly underperformed at 104.7 compared to the anticipated 106.9.
• Australian CPI on Wednesday aligned with expectations at 3.4% year-on-year, indicating steady inflationary pressures.
• In Europe, Spanish Flash CPI on Wednesday exceeded projections, reporting a 3.2% increase year-on-year.
• On Thursday, Australian Retail Sales showed a modest growth of 0.3%, and Canada’s GDP outperformed expectations at 0.6% month-on-month.
• The U.S. ended the week with its Core PCE Price Index meeting the 0.3% month-on-month forecast, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns.

Forex Economic Events Ahead

Monday, April 1

• Japan’s Final Manufacturing PMI is expected at 48.2. A higher figure could strengthen the JPY, affecting JPY forex pairs and possibly influencing commodity markets like precious metals.
• China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI, forecasted at 51.0, will impact the CNY and commodity currencies, given China’s significant role in global trade.

Tuesday, April 2

• Australia’s RBA Meeting Minutes and ANZ Job Advertisements might sway the AUD, especially in commodities like gold and iron ore.
• Canada’s Manufacturing PMI (previous 49.7) and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected at 48.5) will be key for USD/CAD pairs and could influence oil prices.

Wednesday, April 3

• China’s Caixin Services PMI (expected at 52.7) will provide insights into the service sector, potentially affecting the Asian markets and commodities like copper.

Thursday, April 4

• Europe’s Services PMIs will impact EUR pairs. Notable figures include Spain’s Services PMI expected at 55.5 and Italy’s at 53.0.
• U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (forecasted at 149K) and ISM Services PMI (expected at 52.7) will be critical for USD and gold price movements.

Friday, April 5

• U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change is anticipated at 205K, with the Unemployment Rate holding at 3.9%. These figures will likely have a significant impact on the USD and consequently affect metals and commodities pricing.

Expected Market Movements:

• Forex: Significant fluctuations are expected across major currency pairs, especially those involving the USD, EUR, AUD, and CAD, around the data release times.
• Metals: Gold and silver prices might react to the U.S. employment data and any unexpected shifts in manufacturing PMIs, as these affect the USD’s value.
• Commodities: Oil markets could be influenced by manufacturing data and geopolitical events, with natural gas storage data (expected change of -36B) also in focus.

In summary, the first week of April brings a series of pivotal economic events that could sway forex, metal, and commodity markets. Traders should prepare for volatility and potential opportunities arising from these data releases and their broader economic implications.