The USD to CAD rate surged by 70 pips today, breaching the 1.37 mark and continuing its upward trend after reversing from last week’s decline. Tuesday witnessed a 100-pip spike in USD/CAD, propelled by disappointing Canadian GDP figures and robust US employment wages, pushing the pair up by one cent. However, Fed chairman Jerome Powell rejected the idea of rate hikes last week, while the Bank of Canada (BOC) made somewhat less dovish comments, interpreted as hawkish given the BOC’s prior hints at the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle sent this pair down again to 1.36 lows.

USD/CAD Chart H4 – Returning Back Dow to the 20 SMA

Last week, the USD/CAD climbed by 100 pips, only to retract its gains after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday evening and the disappointing NFP jobs report on Friday. Despite fluctuations in volatility, the pair found support yesterday at a cluster of technical levels, notably the 100-hour moving average around 1.3650. While these levels held as support yesterday, buyers have reemerged today, despite the strong Canada Ivey PMI report, indicating a return to normalcy in the Canadian economy.

Canada Ivey PMI for April 2024

• The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April rose to 63.0 points, up from 57.5 points reported in March.
• The seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI increased to 63.0 points.
• The index, when not seasonally adjusted, stood at 65.7 points for April, compared to 63.0 points in the previous month.

Back to the USD/CAD pair again, the price is nearing the convergence point of the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, both situated at 1.36896, a crucial indicator for both buyers and sellers. Yesterday, the price found support at the ascending 200-bar moving average, sparking upward momentum.

USD/CAD Live Chart