Goldman Sachs: Wall Street Rally Won’t Last
According to Goldman, “equity investment asymmetry is limited,” with little conviction for a sustained bullish or bearish trend.
Quick overview
- Since 1980, global stock markets have experienced rallies within downtrends, averaging 44 days and 14% gains.
- Peter Oppenheimer from Goldman Sachs describes the recent equity market rebound as a typical bear market rally, emphasizing the volatility investors face.
- Market movements are heavily influenced by short-term headlines and speculation regarding U.S. tariffs on corporate earnings.
- Despite recent gains, Oppenheimer warns of persistent downside risks unless tariff issues are resolved quickly.
Since 1980, global stock markets have seen several rallies within broader downtrends, typically lasting 44 days and delivering average gains of 14%.
The sharp rebound in equity markets—especially Wall Street—over the past two weeks reflects a classic bear market rally, according to Peter Oppenheimer, strategist at Goldman Sachs Group.
“These sharp gains during bear markets are the norm, not the exception,” Oppenheimer said, adding that erratic swings mean most investors will face pain regardless of market direction.
He also noted that “equity investment asymmetry is limited,” with little conviction for a sustained bullish or bearish trend. Price movements are being driven by short-term headlines and speculation about how U.S. tariffs will impact corporate earnings and valuations.
Oppenheimer warned that unless tariff announcements are reversed quickly and long-term damage remains minimal, downside risks persist. However, given current valuations, he also believes the upside is limited.
Recent history supports this view
While the current global equity decline isn’t officially a bear market, stocks have rebounded 18% from the intraday low reached on April 7. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs traders reported that systematic macro investors bought $51 billion in equities last week, with another $57 billion expected this week. Still, they cautioned that if market signals shift rapidly, these inflows could slow, especially in the current high-volatility environment.
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