EUR/USD Price Breaks Out: $1.15 in Sight After CPI Miss, ECB Signals Support

The EUR/USD pair continued to rally during the European session, trading at 1.14605, after breaking above 1.14450.

Written by: Arslan Butt • Wednesday, June 11, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Quick overview

The EUR/USD pair is rallying, trading at 1.14605 after breaking above 1.14450 due to weaker US inflation data.
Investor caution persists amid uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal, impacting the US dollar.
Eurozone investor confidence has improved significantly, supporting the euro as the ECB maintains its 2% inflation target.
Technically, the EUR/USD is bullish, with targets set at 1.15140 and above, as long as it remains above 1.14450.

The EUR/USD pair continued to rally during the European session, trading at 1.14605, after breaking above 1.14450. This follows weaker than expected US inflation data, with May CPI up 0.1%, below forecasts. The annual figure was 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%. Core CPI also underperformed, so inflation is not rising fast enough to force a hawkish Fed.

Investor caution remains high as the US-China trade deal is still unclear. Despite proposals to reduce tariffs, the deal has to be approved by Trump and Xi Jinping and there is no timeline. This uncertainty is weighing on the US dollar and giving the euro room to move up.

Now focus is on the Fed’s September meeting and a rate cut is still expected unless inflation surprises.

Eurozone Sentiment Improves, ECB Stays the Course

On the Eurozone side, sentiment is improving. The Eurozone investor confidence index rose to 0.2 in June from -8.1 in May, a big rebound from April’s -19.5. This comes as the economic outlook is stabilizing and the ECB is not being as aggressive as expected.

ECB’s Olli Rehn reiterated the bank’s 2% inflation target, just like Christine Lagarde. The ECB not introducing more easing is supporting the euro even if growth is moderate.

With sentiment improving and ECB policy expectations stable, the euro has found fundamental support for its technical breakout.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD Targets 1.15140

The one hour chart shows a confirmed bullish breakout above 1.14450 supported by:

An upward trendline from the May 30 low
50-EMA (1.14232) support
Bullish MACD crossover and momentum up

Price has broken above immediate resistance at 1.14886 and is heading to:

1.15140 – Key level and psychological level
1.15361 – Resistance from late May

As long as above 1.14450, the technicals are bullish. A small pullback to test the breakout could be a new long opportunity.

Summary

EUR/USD is on the back of Eurozone sentiment improving and US inflation weakening. With macro and technicals in line, the bulls are targeting 1.15140 and above, as dollar weakness and policy clarity is in the euro’s favour.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.