U.S. Senate to Raise Debt by $3.3 Trillion While Cutting Social Subsidies
Quick overview
- The revised Senate tax bill is projected to increase the federal deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, exceeding the House version's estimates.
- The proposal includes significant cuts to social subsidies and the elimination of renewable energy tax incentives, potentially affecting health insurance for 11.8 million Americans.
- The Senate vote passed narrowly at 51-49, with two Republican senators joining Democrats in opposition, highlighting the contentious nature of the bill.
- The Congressional Budget Office warns that the bill would add $800 billion more to the national debt than the House version, raising concerns among some Republicans.
The U.S. Senate’s revised version of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax bill would significantly increase the national debt while introducing deeper spending cuts.
Known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” the proposal includes sharp reductions in social subsidies and the elimination of tax incentives for renewable energy.
According to estimates, the Senate plan would raise the federal deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion between 2025 and 2034—almost $1 trillion more than the $2.4 trillion increase projected under the House version passed earlier this year.
By 2034, as many as 11.8 million Americans could lose their health insurance coverage if the bill becomes law, surpassing the House version’s projection of 10.9 million. These forecasts present a challenge for Republican leaders pushing to pass Trump’s bill before the July 4 Independence Day deadline.
Saturday’s Senate vote followed a day of intense negotiations and ended with a narrow 51–49 margin. Two Republican senators joined all 47 Democrats in opposing the initial motion to open debate. Vice President J.D. Vance was present at the Capitol, prepared to cast a tie-breaking vote if necessary, underscoring the high stakes of the session. The Trump administration has said it “strongly supports” the bill’s passage.
Congressional Budget Office Warns of Increased Debt
On Sunday, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its analysis of the bill’s impact on the current $36.2 trillion national debt, estimating that it would add $800 billion more than the House version. Many Republicans disputed the CBO’s findings, arguing that extending current policy would not worsen the debt. However, international bond investors are reportedly taking note and exploring options outside of U.S. Treasuries.
Democrats hope that the CBO’s alarming projections will stir enough concern among fiscally conservative Republicans to trigger defections from within their party, which currently controls both chambers of Congress. “Republicans are doing something the Senate has never done—using fake math and accounting tricks to hide the true cost of this bill,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Sunday.
The Senate voted late Saturday to advance the massive 940-page bill covering tax cuts, immigration policy, border security, and military spending. Trump is urging lawmakers to pass the bill before the July 4 holiday.
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