Mexican Peso Strengthens After Strong U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies—rose 0.35% to 97.12 points.

Written by: Ignacio Teson • Thursday, July 3, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Thursday, July 3, 2025

Quick overview

Signs of strength in the U.S. economy boosted market sentiment, despite steady interest rate expectations.
The Mexican peso appreciated against the U.S. dollar, closing at 18.6629 pesos per dollar after a better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.
The U.S. economy added 147,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, exceeding expectations and reinforcing confidence in the labor market.
However, Mexico faced domestic challenges, with gross fixed investment declining by 12.5% year-over-year in April.

Signs of strength in the world’s largest economy boosted market sentiment on Thursday, even as expectations for steady U.S. interest rates remained in place.

The Mexican peso appreciated against the U.S. dollar in Thursday trading, supported by the release of a better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report that pointed to continued economic resilience.

The exchange rate closed the session at 18.6629 pesos per dollar, compared to 18.7681 in the previous session, based on official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This represented a gain of 10.52 centavos, or 0.56% for the Mexican currency.

During the day, the dollar traded in a narrow range, hitting both a high and low of 18.6369 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies—rose 0.35% to 97.12 points.

USD/MXN

Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise to the Upside

The U.S. economy added 147,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, surpassing expectations. Unemployment also dropped unexpectedly, reinforcing confidence in the strength of the labor market.

The data was released just ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, and markets broadly interpreted it as confirmation that there is no immediate need for monetary stimulus. Analysts noted that the employment figures support a constructive view of the U.S. economy, suggesting a non-recessionary outlook over the next 12 months.

At its strongest point in the session, the peso touched its lowest level in over 10 months, driven by positive risk sentiment. The move also came on the same day the U.S. Congress approved a controversial tax and spending bill backed by President Donald Trump.

Domestic Headwinds: Investment Declines in Mexico

Earlier in the session, before the U.S. jobs data was released, the peso had been under pressure following a weak domestic report.
Gross fixed investment in Mexico fell by 12.5% year-over-year in April, marking eight consecutive months of annual declines, according to data from INEGI, the national statistics agency.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.