Mexican Peso Weakens Against Dollar Ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Data

Investors are now looking to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could prove decisive: a moderate result would keep rate-cut bets alive.

Written by: Ignacio Teson • Thursday, September 4, 2025 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Thursday, September 4, 2025

Quick overview

The Mexican peso weakened against the U.S. dollar, closing at 18.7402 pesos per dollar.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.13% to 98.29 points amid mixed labor data.
Private payrolls in the U.S. increased by only 54,000 jobs, below expectations of 65,000.
Investors are awaiting the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, which could influence future rate-cut expectations.

The Mexican peso weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, pressured by a broad strengthening of the greenback after fresh U.S. labor data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

The exchange rate closed the session at 18.7402 pesos per dollar, compared with 18.7194 on Wednesday, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). The move represented a loss of 2.08 centavos, or 0.11%, for the peso.

During the session, the dollar traded in a range between 18.8011 and 18.7057 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.13% to 98.29 points.

USD/MXN

Private payrolls in the U.S. grew by just 54,000 jobs last month, following a slightly upward revision to 106,000 in July, according to the ADP National Employment Report. Analysts had expected a stronger reading of around 65,000. The figure suggests a cooling labor market but stops short of signaling a sharp downturn. By contrast, ADP’s June report showed a steep drop in jobs, raising hopes that August may reflect some stabilization.

Weekly jobless claims also ticked up. Initial claims rose by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000 in the week ending August 30, compared with consensus forecasts for fewer than 230,000 new filings.

The mixed data have fueled caution over the U.S. economic outlook. Investors are now looking to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could prove decisive: a moderate result would keep rate-cut bets alive, while a strong surprise in employment or wages could quickly reignite dollar strength.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.