Capitec Price Dips to ZAR 347,151 as Mining Fears Rise and Support Gets Tested

Quick overview

Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (JSE: CPI) fell 0.21% to ZAR 347,151 on Thursday, in line with the broader market rather than company specific weakness. The pullback is in line with the concerns around the South African mining sector, with Stats SA to release April numbers tomorrow showing a expected 4.3% year on year decline. That would be a bigger decline than March’s 2.8% and would put pressure on overall economic growth.

Investors are cautious. The South African 2035 bond yield is up slightly to 10.11% as the economic uncertainty continues. Lower mining output can impact loan demand and credit quality – areas that are key to Capitec’s consumer banking business.

But Capitec’s fundamentals are still solid. The stock is consolidating above the 50 period EMA and a rising trendline on the 4 hour chart, a key technical support level.

Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd Support Holds, But Momentum Fades

Technically Capitec is at a crossroads. A failed breakout above ZAR 357,694 has led to a pullback and the stock is testing the ZAR 347,113 EMA and ZAR 345,038 trendline. A rejection candle at the highs suggests buyer fatigue.

The MACD is showing a bearish crossover and momentum is fading. If ZAR 345,038 breaks, next supports are at ZAR 337,538 and ZAR 330,194. A bounce could take CPI to ZAR 357,694 and possibly ZAR 366,288.

Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd Trade Setup:

• Entry: Long above ZAR 350,000 or short below ZAR 345,000
• Stop-loss: ZAR 343,000
• Target 1: ZAR 357,600
• Target 2: ZAR 366,000
• Risk: Moderate; confirmation needed via MACD or price action

Macro Will Help Capitec

Despite the short term dip, the broader indicators are looking up. The JSE All Share Index is above 96,000 points as consumer activity is picking up. Q1 GDP growth was 0.1% but the OECD is forecasting 1.3% for 2025.

Key signs of economic improvement:

• New car sales up 21% YoY in May* Consumer spending up 3% YoY in Q1 2025
• Foreign capital inflows as USD weakens

Strategists like Izak Odendaal think falling global rates and infrastructure reforms will help the economy. Capitec with its retail presence will benefit from easing credit and rising consumption.

For now CPI is at a crossroads. A move above or below the ZAR 345,000-ZAR 350,000 zone will decide its short term direction.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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