JSE All Share Index Gains 547 Points Amid Trade Fears, Rand Weakness

Quick overview

The JSE FTSE All Share Index rose 546.65 points (+0.55%) to 99,243.04 ZAR on Tuesday, defying broader trade and currency concerns. Gains were broad-based across large caps as the rand weakened ahead of a key announcement and looming tariffs.

Investors are waiting for the August 1 deadline for a 30% US tariff on South African exports. ETM Analytics noted that the lack of clarity is still weighing on the currency, saying: “It may be that the announcement is only made on Friday, which may help clarify SA’s trade position with the US.” If talks fail, SA may get less favourable trade terms, which will impact export sectors.

Rand Under Pressure Ahead of Central Bank Decision

The rand weakened in early trade, dragged by global trade fears and Thursday’s SARB decision. A Reuters poll of economists expects a 25 basis point cut to stimulate credit and growth. June’s M3 money supply rose 7.27% y/y (vs 6.86% in May) and private sector credit was steady at 4.98%.

Nedbank analysts say “lower interest rates and improving household finances” are driving domestic lending. But bond markets are cautious, with the 2035 yield up 2.5 basis points to 9.825%.

JSE Top 40 Index Technical View: Index Consolidates in Bullish Zone

The JSE Top 40 Index is testing the resistance zone near 91,800, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high of 92,783.2. The index has respected its trendline and is above the 50-period SMA (90,462), so bullish momentum is intact.

The RSI is at 54.90, which is neutral, so there’s room for more upside if buyers regain strength. A close above 91,800 could trigger a move to 92,774 and 93,552, while a drop below 91,208 could see supports at 90,234 and 89,541. Price is consolidating in a bullish trend, so traders may look for breakouts or dips to the Fibonacci levels to get back in.

Equities are short-term strong but:

• August 1 US-SA trade deadline
• Thursday SARB decision
• Credit and growth trajectory

If talks fail or SARB disappoints, volatility will return and hit equities. For now, it’s okay.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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