WTI Oil Price Prediction: Bulls Hold $68 Despite EIA Surprise and Trump Tariff Risk
WTI crude oil (USOIL) is at $68.34, above key support after a wild week of geopolitical headlines, tariff escalations and a surprise...
Quick overview
- WTI crude oil is currently priced at $68.34, maintaining support despite recent geopolitical tensions and a surprise inventory build.
- Trump's tariff campaign is impacting global demand, while a significant 7.1 million barrel build in US crude adds to market concerns.
- OPEC+ is increasing output, but geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea are providing temporary support for oil prices.
- The market is at a critical technical juncture, with bulls needing to defend the $68 level to maintain upward momentum.
WTI crude oil (USOIL) is at $68.34, above key support after a wild week of geopolitical headlines, tariff escalations and a surprise US inventory build. Bulls are defending the rising channel, but the market is on edge as fundamentals and technicals clash.
Macro Headwinds: Trump’s Tariffs and a Surprise Crude Build
Trump’s tariff campaign expanded this week, with new demand letters to Brazil and reiteration of 50% tariffs on copper and 14 other countries. While crude oil isn’t directly targeted, the broader trade war rhetoric is scaring off global demand, especially from manufacturing heavy regions.
This was compounded by a 7.1 million barrel build in US crude last week, vs 2.1 million barrel draw expected. But some of the pain was offset by a drawdown in gasoline and distillate stocks, with gasoline demand showing some resilience.
Meanwhile OPEC+ confirmed a big output hike in September as 8 members unwind their voluntary cuts. The UAE, which will transition to a higher production quota, said inventories are not building, implying demand is firm despite the supply boost.
Geopolitically, tensions in the Red Sea flared up after attacks disrupted a key global shipping route, providing a short term cushion to the downside.
Technical Analysis: Bulls Defend Channel Support
Price is respecting the rising channel on the 1 hour chart, with support from the 50 period SMA at $68.15 providing the structure. Buyers are stepping in at this dynamic area, even as macro risk builds.
- Immediate Support: $68.15 (SMA), $68.01 (channel bottom)
- Next Support: $67.31 and $66.82
- Resistance Levels: $68.70 (local high), $69.24 and $69.82
- RSI: 52.27 – Neutral, no overbought or oversold signals
As long as price is above $68.00, short term momentum is still up. But be cautious if price breaks below this level, especially if triggered by a fundamental event.
Scenario A: Bullish
- Entry: $68.50+ on green candle
- Stop-loss: $68.00
- Target: $69.24, then $69.82
- Setup Rationale: Support holds, channel intact, risk on
Scenario B: Bearish
- Entry: $68.00 with high volume rejection
- Stop-loss: $68.50
- Target: $67.31, then $66.82
- Setup Rationale: EIA build + macro fear
In my experience oil overreacts to geopolitical surprises—but ultimately follows supply demand. Right now that balance is tight but sentiment is fragile.
Conclusion
WTI crude oil is at a technical pivot point with macro uncertainty. Bulls have room above $68 but the EIA build and Trump’s tariff campaign will limit upside unless supported by fresh news. Watch the lower channel zone—structure still favors buying dips but patience is key.
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