Forex Signals Brief July 28: Data Tsunami as Fed, BoJ, GDP & Tariffs Line Up to Shake Markets

Markets are bracing for a flood of critical macroeconomic data, central bank decisions, and trade-related events that could shape sentiment.

Written by: Skerdian Meta • Monday, July 28, 2025 • 4 min read

• Last updated: Sunday, July 27, 2025

Quick overview

Markets are preparing for a week filled with significant macroeconomic data and central bank decisions that could impact sentiment.
The European Central Bank maintained interest rates, with President Lagarde highlighting eurozone growth while cautioning about potential risks.
In the U.S., mixed economic data and Fed Chair Powell's public appearance with President Trump added political undertones to market movements.
Bitcoin rebounded strongly after a brief dip, while Ethereum's rally is driven by optimism surrounding an upcoming upgrade.

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Markets are bracing for a flood of critical macroeconomic data, central bank decisions, and trade-related events that could shape sentiment into August.

ECB Held Rates, Lagarde Notes Progress but Flags Caution

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, with President Christine Lagarde striking a cautiously upbeat tone. She pointed to stronger-than-expected eurozone growth of 0.6% in Q1, fueled by resilient consumer spending, firm labor conditions, and increased investment.

Lagarde added that inflation is gradually moving closer to the 2% target, aided by improved productivity and modest wage increases. However, she acknowledged several risks ahead, including tariff uncertainty, euro strength, and geopolitical tensions.

The ECB stuck to its data-driven approach, with no commitment on future moves. Sources suggest September is likely to bring no change either, and the current decision had full council backing.

Fed Optics, Mixed Data Dominate U.S. Headlines

In the U.S., Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared publicly with President Trump during a tour of the Fed’s renovated offices. Trump downplayed policy friction, but Powell appeared reserved, prompting markets to interpret the event as more political than economic.

Economic readings were mixed: manufacturing activity contracted, while services continued to grow, keeping tech sector momentum intact.

Wall Street Higher as Earnings Roll In

Markets closed out the week in uneven fashion as Q2 earnings got underway. While most results beat expectations, reactions were muted:

Dow Jones dropped 316 points (–0.70%), pulling back from its recent high.
S&P 500 edged up by 0.07% to a new record.
NASDAQ gained 0.18%, also closing at an all-time high, driven by continued strength in tech and AI stocks.

Key Market Events This Week (July 29 – August 2)

Markets are heading into one of the most data-dense weeks of 2025, with nearly every global economic pillar—growth, inflation, labor, and central bank policy—under the microscope. The Fed’s rate guidance, PCE inflation, and Friday’s NFP jobs report will be especially critical for risk appetite. Combined with the US-China tariff deadline and earnings from big tech, investors should prepare for heightened volatility and rapid shifts in sentiment. The outcome of this week could either reinforce the bullish trend—or trigger a sharp repricing across asset classes.

Monday, July 29

US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul): Will offer early clues on regional business activity amid shifting rate expectations.
Germany GfK Consumer Climate (Aug): A look at whether German households are feeling the strain of inflation or seeing light ahead.

Tuesday, July 30

US Consumer Confidence (Jul): Crucial for assessing whether spending momentum can hold up into Q3.
US JOLTS Job Openings (Jun): Labor market tightness continues to guide Fed sentiment on inflation risk.

Wednesday, July 31 – Super Wednesday

FOMC Policy Decision: Will the Fed hint at September cuts or hold the line with hawkish rhetoric? Expect volatility.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Markets watch for signs of a dovish pivot after softer inflation data.
Australian Q2 CPI: Could make or break RBA cut expectations.
Eurozone Q2 Preliminary GDP: Determines whether growth is stabilizing across the bloc.
US ADP Employment Report (Jul): A preview of Friday’s NFP report.
US Q2 Advance GDP & PCE: Core growth and inflation indicators—both critical for Fed trajectory.
US Pending Home Sales (Jun): Indicates whether housing demand is cooling again.

Thursday, August 1 – Heavy Global Flow

Bank of Japan Policy Decision: Negative rate exit or more patience? Yen traders on edge.
French & German Flash CPI (Jul): Europe inflation watch continues.
US PCE Inflation (Jun): Fed’s favorite inflation metric—arguably the week’s top number.
US Weekly Jobless Claims: Trending lower or higher?
Canada Monthly GDP (May): Will determine if the BoC can ease soon.

Friday, August 2 – Fireworks Friday

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul): Confirms or revises July sentiment trends.
Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (Jul): Must-watch for ECB hawks/doves.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul): The headline jobs report; critical for all asset classes.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Will factory activity finally rebound?
University of Michigan Final Sentiment (Jul): Consumer mood as fall approaches.
US Tariff Deadline (Aug 2): Potential headline risk if last-minute changes emerge.

Last week, markets were slower than what we’ve seen in recent months, with gold retreating and then bouncing to finish the week unchanged. EUR/USD slipped toward 1.16, while S&P and Nasdaq continued higher. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.

Gold Returns Below $3,400

Gold rebounded off its 20-week moving average near $3,150, climbing nearly $50 to finish around $3,438/oz. Still, after failing to hold above $3,400 post-U.S.-Japan trade talks, gold appears stuck in a consolidation phase below the $3,500 resistance. Traders await fresh inflation clues or remarks from the Fed to trigger the next move.

XAU/USD – Daily Chart

USD/JPY Returns Below the 100 Weekly SMA After Japanese Elections

USD/JPY Breakout Challenges BoJ Forecasts

The U.S. dollar surged past the 148 yen threshold, surprising many who expected further yen strength. This rally also took the pair above the 100-week moving average, a significant technical barrier often viewed as a long-term resistance level.

Fueling the move is a wave of Japanese capital seeking returns abroad, which is complicating the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. If the pair manages to close the week firmly above this level, it could reinforce sentiment in favor of the dollar and reignite discussions around the policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly After Brief Breakdown

Bitcoin momentarily slipped under $113,000 earlier in the week but quickly reversed course, bouncing back above $120,000 with notable force. The dip triggered strong buying interest as the cryptocurrency tested its 50-day moving average, while further support held at the 20-week SMA.

Market participants appear to be treating these pullbacks as opportunities to reenter, especially amid ongoing uncertainty in traditional markets. Bitcoin’s recovery suggests continued appetite for digital hedges in times of macro volatility.

BTC/USD – Weekly chart

Ethereum Inches Closer to $4,000

Ethereum has recently outshone Bitcoin, rising 20% since April and breaking decisively above its 100-week moving average. The rally is being fueled by growing optimism over the upcoming “Pectra” upgrade, which is expected to significantly improve Ethereum’s scalability and transaction efficiency.

This upgrade has caught institutional attention, with increased inflows supporting the bullish momentum. Now targeting the $4,000 level, Ethereum is regaining favor as a high-conviction bet in the crypto space.

ETH/USD – Daily Chart

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.