Mondi Group JSE: Make or Break Time As MNP Share Price Faces 15 Year Support
The global packaging leader Mondi continues to deliver operational gains, but share price pressures persist in both the UK and South Africa.
Quick overview
- Mondi continues to show operational strength with a significant increase in underlying EBITDA, despite facing share price pressures in the UK and South Africa.
- The company's South African shares have experienced volatility, with a recent decline linked to weaker earnings reports from its UK parent.
- Mondi's diversified business model and strong performance in corrugated and flexible packaging segments highlight its resilience in the global market.
- Investors are closely monitoring the share price's ability to break through resistance levels amid ongoing local market challenges.
The global packaging leader Mondi continues to deliver operational gains, but share price pressures persist in both the UK and South Africa.
Mondi Navigates Volatile Markets
Even as its South African share price remains volatile, Mondi Group continues to assert its dominance in the global packaging and paper market. The parent company, Mondi UK, recently posted a softer second-quarter report, triggering a 13% drop in its London-listed shares (LON:MNDI) and a 12% decline in its Johannesburg counterpart (JSE:MNP).
With a market valuation of approximately R126.32 billion ($7.38 billion), Mondi remains a heavyweight in sustainable packaging and paper, backed by its diversified business model and significant South African operations. Despite local price swings, the company’s fundamentals and global footprint continue to demonstrate resilience.
Operational Strength Amid Local Weakness
Mondi reported an underlying EBITDA of €290 million in Q1 2025, a sharp improvement from €214 million in the same quarter of 2024. This performance underscores the company’s ability to generate earnings despite a challenging market backdrop.
In South Africa, the JSE-listed MNPJ shares have faced prolonged pressure. The price dipped to 24,300 ZAC in early 2025, briefly breaching key support levels before rebounding above 30,000 ZAC as global sentiment improved. However, a 15% decline in August, sparked by the UK parent’s weak earnings report, pulled the stock back into its multi-year trading range.
Technical and Market Outlook
For nearly a decade, attempts to sustain moves above the 30,000 ZAC resistance zone have repeatedly failed, highlighting a tough ceiling for the share price. Investors now watch closely to see if MNPJ will rebound toward the upper range or break lower, testing market confidence in the group’s long-term South African operations.
Mondi’s outlook remains tied to its ability to balance local volatility with global growth, particularly in sustainable packaging, where demand remains robust.
Mondi Plc UK H1 2025 Earnings Overview
Mixed segment performance highlights strength in packaging but weakness in paper.
Earnings and Financial Highlights
- EPS: €0.42, down from €0.505 in H1 2024
- Driven by higher depreciation and finance costs linked to increased debt levels.
- Underlying EBITDA: €564 million, flat year-on-year, reflecting stable overall performance.
Segment Performance
Corrugated Packaging
- Underlying EBITDA jumped 42% to €203 million.
- Boosted by higher volumes from newly completed capacity expansions and strong containerboard selling prices.
- Flexible Packaging
- EBITDA rose 9% to €302 million.
- Continued resilience supported by stable demand and efficiency gains.
Uncoated Fine Paper
- EBITDA plunged to €81 million, from €166 million Y/Y.
- Weighed down by sharp declines in paper and pulp selling prices and lower forestry fair value gains (€18M vs €49M in 2024).
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