Gold Price Prediction: Uptrend Intact as Support Holds, Brace for PCE and GDP Data
Gold remains firmly supported just below record highs, buoyed by Federal Reserve dovishness, trade tensions, and ongoing safe-haven demand.
Quick overview
- Gold remains supported just below record highs due to Federal Reserve dovishness, trade tensions, and safe-haven demand.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments have increased expectations for two interest rate cuts in 2025, boosting market sentiment.
- Technical indicators show strong support for gold, with the 20-week SMA cushioning recent declines and traders eyeing a potential breakout.
- Geopolitical tensions and trade frictions continue to drive demand for gold, while analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook for the metal.
Live GOLD Chart
Gold remains firmly supported just below record highs, buoyed by Federal Reserve dovishness, trade tensions, and ongoing safe-haven demand. Technicals have also reinforced the bullish outlook, with last week’s bounce from the 100-day SMA signaling renewed investor appetite.
Powell’s Speech Fuels Optimism
In his Jackson Hole remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at flexibility on interest rates, strengthening expectations for two rate cuts in 2025—likely beginning in September. Market odds for a cut surged to nearly 100% after his comments, lifting risk sentiment broadly. The Russell 2000 rallied nearly 4%, marking its best week since early April, while gold found steady support as the U.S. dollar retreated.
Gold touched a record $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, before easing into its current consolidation phase. Investors now anticipate not just one, but two rate cuts this year as shifts inside the Fed tilt policy toward accommodation.
Technical Picture: Support Levels Holding for Gold on the Daily Chart
Following the last FOMC meeting, where rates were left unchanged, gold briefly dipped toward $3,268. However, the 20-week SMA acted as strong support, cushioning the decline. Softer U.S. inflation readings have since reinforced the case for easing, keeping the dollar on the back foot and sustaining gold’s uptrend.
Gold Chart Weekly – The 20 SMA Is Providing Support Here
Weak labor data added further momentum, though some traders questioned its reliability. Despite modest weekend losses, the technical backdrop remains constructive, with traders eyeing another breakout attempt above April’s peak.
Geopolitics and Trade Tensions Boost Safe-Haven Flows
Trade frictions continue to underpin gold demand. Earlier this month, President Trump imposed fresh tariffs—50% across a wide basket of imports and an additional 25% on Indian goods in response to its Russian oil purchases. The move pushed Indian bullion prices close to record highs.
Still, geopolitical risk eased somewhat after Trump’s meeting with Putin over the weekend, which produced a less confrontational outcome than markets expected.
Key Events to Watch This Week
Markets will turn to U.S. data for fresh direction:
- Prelim GDP Q2 (Thursday)
- GDP Price Index q/q
- Weekly Unemployment Claims
Core PCE Price Index – forecasted to rise 0.3% MoM, the same pace as last month. On a YoY basis, last month’s print was 2.8%, with this release set to be closely watched for confirmation of cooling or persistent price pressures.
Longer-Term Outlook: Structural Bullish Case
Beyond short-term drivers, gold’s structural outlook remains firmly positive. Rising production costs, constrained mine supply, and mining firms’ preference for organic growth over mergers are all keeping output in check.
UBS and other analysts emphasize gold’s expanding investor base and enduring role as a strategic hedge against debt growth, geopolitical instability, and shifting global alliances. In a world increasingly fraught with risks, gold’s store-of-value appeal is arguably stronger than ever.
Gold Live Chart
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