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CPI (YoY) (U.K.)

BOE Governor Mark Carney
Event Date: Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Event Time: 06:00 CET

Inflation Expected to Tick Higher in Britain

Updated Monday, February 12, 2024
Inflation used to be strong several year ago in the UK, but cooled off due to the coronavirus restrictions, falling to 0.2% in September last year, It remained volatile until March, but in April headline CPI increased to 1.5% YoY, while core CPI to 1.3%. They were expected to increase further to 1.8% and 1.5% respectively in May, but jumped higher to 2.0% and 2.1%. In June we saw another increase to 2.3% and 2.5% respectively, but they cooled off in July to 2.0% each although increased to 3.2% in August. In October we saw another increase to 4.2%, while November is expected at 4.8%. In January 2022, the headline CPI inflation is expected to remain at 5.4%, while core CPI to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2% in December. In January it increased to 5.5% while in February it increased to 6.2% and it's expected to increase further to 7.0% in March and jumped 9.1% in April, while May ticked higher to 9.1%. By September CPI increased to 10.0% while in October it jumped to 11.1%. The slowdown continued until April while in May we saw another jump to 8.7%. By July the CPI fell to 6.8% and continued to slow further, falling to 4.6% in October, while November fell to 3.9%. December CPI is expected at 3.8% YoY. Please follow us for live coverage of this event by market analysts. 

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About CPI (YoY) (U.K.)
U.K. CPI (MoM) is a primary measurement of inflationary pressures facing the GBP. It is derived and presented by the National Statistics Bureau, a governmental entity. U.K. CPI (MoM) is a comparison of retail prices facing a typical basket of goods and services, compared on a month-over-month basis.   Monetary policy decisions, trade balance, and consumer confidence are sensitive to CPI. Currency markets involving the GBP are receptive to a growing CPI, as it is a signal of inflation. As inflationary pressures grow or reside, the Bank of England (BOE) crafts monetary policy accordingly. High CPI values are often viewed as a precursor for tightening monetary policy toward the GBP, while low readings are conducive to a dovish tone. U.K. CPI is capable of swaying GBP valuations dramatically. Strong values lead to bullish participation for the GBP and lagging CPI facilitates bearish price action.
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